10/13/2010 大盘回顾 （Expect a Short-term Pullback Soon）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max is 20. 10/08 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/08 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. Failed! 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback? Failed! 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/08 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days? Failed! 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? *6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 10/13. *10/13 Market Recap: % SPX stocks above BB(50,1) is too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON BUT IT MIGHT JUST BE A TEMPORARY TOP

 

大盘有点点overbought了，不过还不够我正式用overbought做title。老读者也许能记得，我不轻易用overbought做title的，因为我观察的overbought信号并不是普通的信号，因此他们的准确率是相当高的(so don’t tell me overbought can be more overbought, just search my past record to see what happened when I officially used overbought as the title. The most recent time I used overbought as the title was in 07/26 Market Recap)。之所以今天提前说可能要overbought，意思是提醒牛牛，明天如果还涨的话，注意套利，pullback就在眼前了。当然，pullback if indeed，多半仅仅是个short-term pullback而已。

 

下面看看几个我所谓不是普通的overbought信号。

 

Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)，这个信号源自Bespoke，highlighted in red都是离short-term top不远了，而今天我们的读数是图中最高的。

 

 

T2112，NYSE percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(40)，图中蓝色水平线是2009年以前的all time high，我们现在已经非常接近了。

 

 

T2122，NYSE 4-week New High/Low Ratio，这是我看overbought的终极武器，现在也离extreme不远了。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，char pattern看，形成了一个巨大的Bearish Rising Wedge，这个Rising Wedge的可信度应该比较高，因为上下trend line都是3点validated过的。此外，很可能正在形成第三个Rounding Top，因此要小心the 3rd time is the charm，这第3个Rounding Top跟前两次bullish的Rounding Top不一样，是bearish的。

 

 

6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB)，这个follow up一下10/11 After Bell Quick Summary，算是触发short setup了，具体的统计数据，请参看04/13 Market Recap。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA		Confirmed breakout, very bullish.
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high.
BOND	DOWN	*Hollow red bar, rebound?
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	*UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? *3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Black bar under important resistance, pullback?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

windy

shafa!

zyang

oda

X中国陆军

Laoda

safa

Laoda

bandeng

ddr

terranmn

skipjack

Thanks

t-k

IMeMyself

re, thanks

xixi

hillcrest

xie xie!

dreampen

志志雄

长熊的志气啊！敲锣的说。。。

ChuChu888

Thanks.

philles

萧秋水

辛苦了，多谢！

q2model

New reader here. With your ST model signal as buy while you are expecting short term pullback, what is the best action?