10/14/2010 大盘回顾 （Today's low may not be the low）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max was 20. 10/08 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/08 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. Failed! 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback? Failed! 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/08 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days? Failed! 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 10/13. 10/13 Market Recap: % SPX stocks above BB(50,1) is too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: TODAY’S LOW IS NOT THE LOW

 

今天收盘前的大反弹以及盘后GOOG的ER可能给人感觉pullback已经结束了，不过，今天的low多半不是the low，因此下面最可能的走法是SPX rebound to higher high后pullback，但也不能完全排除明天继续pullback的可能，毕竟从SPY daily图看，Shooting Star plus Hanging Man都是有反转可能的棒棒。

 

 

下面谈谈为什么我说今天的low不是the low，当然最bullish的情况是两三周后才visit today’s low。

 

Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)还是很高，see highlighted in red，虽然后面都有higher high，但是今天的low是guaranteed will be revisited。

 

 

Institutional Selling Action from Stocktiming. 这个象极了四月份的情形，institutions selling一直在增加，牛牛还是要小心。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA		Confirmed breakout, very bullish.
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high.
BOND	DOWN
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	*LA
ENERGY	UP	*The 2nd hollow red bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS	*DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? *3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Black bar under important resistance, pullback?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

IMeMyself

SF

IMeMyself

Bench

开小差

thx,ding

Scorpion

xie le

atrader

thanks

t-k

lwmm

thanks

妞妞

今天的报告这么快就出来了, 感谢班长,现在去做涨; 感觉不如等着做跌呢,除非DT.

greatinter

胡同儿串子

"institutions selling一直在增加"

Cobra

今天的报告这么快就出来了, 感谢班长,现在去做涨; 感觉不如等着做跌呢,除非DT.
妞妞 发表于 2010-10-14 19:47

    不要猜顶，太危险。

oldfox

catbear

first page

catbear

2nd page

maomi

catbear

tonghu

catbear

萧秋水

辛苦了，多谢！