10/19/2010 大盘回顾 （Immediate lower low or lower close guaranteed?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26 10/22 : 10/23 Next pivot date: 10/21 – 10/22, 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max was 20. 10/15 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/15 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/15 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 10/13. 10/13 Market Recap: % SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high. 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1176 within 2 days? 10/15 Market Recap: ISEE Index is way too high. 10/15 Market Recap: AAPL is way too stretched. 10/15 Market Recap: Euro may retreat which may cause US$ carry trade unwind. *6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: TICK too low, lower low or lower close ahead? *1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Double Top, target $114.77. *10/19 Market Recap: IBM dropped after ER may mean SPX will be red in 5 weeks.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *10/07 Low *Adjust stop loss.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXTREMELY LOW TICK READING GUARANTEES A LOWER LOW OR LOWER CLOSE AHEAD

 

今天SPY 60 min chart算是完成了一个1-2-3 trend change的过程，因此至少短期对牛牛不利，特别是ChiOsc还很高，see dashed red line，此后都有不同程度的pullback，也因此收盘前的反弹可以看作back test Double Top neckline (see SPY 15 min chart at bottom)，不排除明天继续下跌的可能。总体上，我认为pullback to Fib 23.6% at $115.15到Double Top textbook target $114.77之间还是有可能的。

 

 

另外一个对牛牛特别不利的是今天有个extremely low TICK，有些exchanger甚至report今天有个record low TICK。下面的图应该很清楚，红色虚线远远多于绿色虚线，换句话说就是几天内a lower low or lower close almost guaranteed。

 

 

牛牛的希望有两个，不过我权衡再三，认为这两个希望也许不能都往牛里解释，当然牛牛有知情权，所以这里一并说明一下。

 

从八月底开始的rally，一共有三次较大的回调，每次都是SPX 25点，今天正好也是25点，所以有可能pullback今天已经结束了。当然，也许可能大概第三次会不一样，所以我才认为这个理由不是很strong，反而可以往熊熊方解释。

 

 

今天形成了一个back to back unfilled gap，按理应该很快会补，问题是熊熊也有个back to back unfilled gap，所以目前也难说是否绝对对牛牛有利。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26 OR 11/04

 

今天又多了个不祥之兆，就是IBM ER后跌了，interestingly根据Bespoke的统计，IBM ER后跌，有80%的可能意味着SPX red in 5 weeks。

 

 

Follow up一下AAPL，虽然AAPL ER后跌了，不过很遗憾，MACD还是too stretched。

 

 

另外，可能也不要指望AAPL短期内大反弹，理由是ChiOsc is way too high now，看看红虚线后都发生了什么就明白了。

 

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:

1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, VIX:VXV is too low and statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good for the broad market.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*DOWN
NDX Weekly		NDX to SPX ratio too high. %B too high. Neither had any edges though.
IWM	*DOWN
IWM Weekly		%B too high.
CHINA		Rejected by downtrend line, watch…
CHINA Weekly		Extremely high %B.
EEM	*DOWN
EEM Weekly		EEM to SPX ratio too high, %B too high. Neither had any edges though.
XIU.TO	*DOWN	TOADV MA(10) too high. *Hollow red bar on trend line, rebound?
XIU.TO Weekly		Fib 61.8% plus %B too high with negative divergence.
TLT	*UP	1-2-3 trend change? So TLT could be in an intermediate-term downtrend. Be careful.
TLT Weekly
FXE	*DOWN
FXE Weekly		Stalled at Fib confluences area, %B too high with negative divergence, too high above MA(40).
GLD	*DOWN
GLD Weekly		%B too high.
GDX	DOWN	*On support, BPGDM sell signal though.
GDX Weekly		GDX to SPX ratio too high, %B too high with negative divergence.
USO	*DOWN	*Breakdown below a consolidation area, bearish.
WTIC Weekly
XLE	*DOWN
XLE Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.
XLF	*DOWN
XLF Weekly		Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
IYR	DOWN	*Multiple reversal bars stalled under Rising Wedge resistance, not good.
IYR Weekly		Home builders are lagging.
XLB	*DOWN
XLB Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore offer no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list; UP/DOWN = Short-term trend; L A = Lateral Trend

Forevergreen

thanks, shafa

dreampen

thanks

vicvic

darren168

Thanks

cfayahoo

好详细, 谢谢Cobra

回复 1# Cobra

greenapple_9999

Thanks, first page.

Alchemist

aurora99

1 page?

aurora99

dreampen

辛苦了

tenteddies

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nanosensor

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Summerrose

STEVEN

辛苦您了

everest001

Bigmouth

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greenback

辛苦了！