10/21/2010 大盘回顾 （Two Top Signals）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up. I hold both long and short overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26 10/22 : 10/23 Next pivot date: 10/21 – 10/22, 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 20. 10/15 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/15 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/15 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 10/19 Market Recap: AAPL is way too stretched. 10/15 Market Recap: Euro may retreat which may cause US$ carry trade unwind. 6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: TICK too low, lower low or lower close ahead? 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Double Top, target $114.77. Failed!  10/19 Market Recap: IBM dropped after ER may mean SPX will be red in 5 weeks. *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line breakout, topped? *6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: New high on negative NYMO readings, topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *10/08 Low *Adjust stop loss.

 

SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME PROFITS

 

今天有两个top signals触发了，考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22，因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道，这么说可能大部分人都不会相信，我也不敢相信，不过，根据6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch，下周很多半是red week，所以牛牛在这里take some profits，可能不会有大错吧，特别是follow SPY ST Model的，因为这个model is designed to stay in a trend as long as possible，因此是没有take partial profit的信号的，要自己找机会，我觉得现在应该是时候了。

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend line breakout, actually twice，因此可信度应该比只破了一根3 pointed validated trend line要高。这个信号，老读者都知道，非常准确，所以不可轻视，特别是如果明天trend line held的话。

 

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, SPX new high但是NYMO却是clear in red，关于这个，我有个叫NYMO Sell的setup，用的是同样的原理，见下图右上角，这个setup的winning rate是65% (since 2002)，但是gain loss ratio很惊人，可以高达5，换句话说，就是经常抓住exactly top。6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，因为是人工看图，所以准确率应该高于65%，见下面的图里红色虚线比绿色虚线多多少就明白了(8/11  = 73%)。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26 OR 11/04

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:

1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good for the broad market.
7. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, IBM dropped after ER may mean SPX red in 5 weeks.
8. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, AAPL MACD is now too stretched which could mean a top for QQQQ.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	LA
NDX Weekly		NDX to SPX ratio too high. %B too high. Neither had any edges though.
IWM	DOWN
IWM Weekly		%B too high.
CHINA		Rejected by downtrend line, watch…
CHINA Weekly		Extremely high %B.
EEM	DOWN
EEM Weekly		EEM to SPX ratio too high, %B too high. Neither had any edges though.
XIU.TO	LA	TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly		Fib 61.8% plus %B too high with negative divergence.
TLT	*DOWN	1-2-3 trend change? So TLT could be in an intermediate-term downtrend. Be careful.
TLT Weekly
FXE	*LA	*Bearish reversal bar, combining with weekly chart, so pullback?
FXE Weekly		Stalled at Fib confluences area, %B too high with negative divergence, too high above MA(40).
GLD	DOWN
GLD Weekly		%B too high.
GDX	DOWN	On support, BPGDM sell signal though.
GDX Weekly		GDX to SPX ratio too high, %B too high with negative divergence.
USO	*DOWN
WTIC Weekly
XLE	LA	*Bearish reversal bar, combining with weekly chart, so pullback?
XLE Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.
XLF	*LA
XLF Weekly		Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
IYR	UP
IYR Weekly		Home builders are lagging.
XLB	UP
XLB Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore offer no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list; UP/DOWN = Short-term trend; L A = Lateral Trend

phoenix

Yes, first time got Safa, Haha. Good sign. tomorrow will win big! Go Bulls, go!!!

jamesmith

shafa!

dreampen

手动发士大夫撒旦发射点法得分的

还是没抢到沙发。光顾了看报告了。

phoenix

phoenix

  

jamesmith

看来我的沙发神功已经炉火纯青了~~~

phoenix

thanks! Will take profits tomorrow.

mlif

3ks!

jamesmith

yes
phoenix 发表于 2010-10-21 20:54

yi~~~ kao~~~ 竟然还是慢了一步...

IMeMyself

re and thanks

shoujie

SF

xz214

happyface

thanks

妞妞

看来真得考虑出来了, 谢谢.

20108

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

oldfox

t-k

philles