11/04/2010 大盘回顾 （Clear Breakout）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up. I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26, 11/04 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/26 Market Recap: Average 2.7% gain during the 8 trading days surrounding midterm election. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Ascending Triangle breakout to be confirmed, target $122.24. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. Failed! 10/29 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: New high on negative NYMO readings, topped? Failed! 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. 6.1.9b Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index <= 30, top close? Failed! 6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: Extremely low TICK guarantees a lower low/close ahead? Failed! *T2111 is a little bit high. *T2112 is a little bit high. *11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high. *11/04 Market Recap: Sentimentrader’s indicators at bearish extremes is a little bit high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *10/27 Low *Adjust stop loss. NYMO Sell 10/28 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed. *Stopped out with loss on 11/04.

 

SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH GUARANTEED, NEED WATCH SOME BEARISH EXTREMES THOUGH

 

没啥好争辩的，clear breakout，且因为是Major Accumulation Day，因此an immediate higher high was almost guaranteed，熊熊只有到下一个盘整区才可能有反击的希望了。也因此，我关于intermediate-term的bearish view需要重新评估，尽管我call的time window最迟是到11/08 (see 10/29 Market Recap)，不过，我觉得可能性不大了，除非明天是red day (will discuss this if indeed so)。I feel terrible for being wrong，不过希望大家看到了我在10/05 Market Recap中提到的，16 more trading days upswing after 10/05 breakout，另外，在10/22 Market Recap里，我亦提到了bearish view不等于short position，要以我table above里的position为准，因此操作上，strictly follow my report的话应该没有损失。Anyway，今后我将换一种表达方式，以避免误解。

 

 

明天是Non Farm Payroll day，关于这一天，一般比较bullish，而intraday pattern则趋向于低开高走或者高开低走。

 

 

下面的统计来自Bespoke:

If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and the market opens up, history says not to chase it. If the report comes in much weaker than expected and the market opens down, investors should buy on weakness.

 

今天有很多bearish extremes，不过以目前的牛劲，可能这些extreme还不够extreme，因此expect pullback的话，多半还要等等。下面简单的罗列一下这些extreme。

 

Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50), see highlighted in red.

 

 

T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200), 图中的蓝色水平线是2009年以前的all time high，因此我们今天这个读数还是很高的。

 

 

T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40), 同样，图中的蓝色水平线是2009年以前的all time high，因此我们今天这个读数还是很高的。

 

 

Indicators at Extremes from sentimentrader，简单讲，就是有41%的sentimentrader indicators are now at bearish extremes，这个数值是相当高的。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: TO BE REASSESSED

 

The SPX had a clear breakout of its 3 weeks range on the upside, so the intermediate-term bearish view was a failed call. Will reassess the intermediate-term trend in the weekend report.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

 

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly	UP	%B too high with negative divergence. NASI weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA	07/15 L
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM		*ChiOsc is too high.
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	08/31 L	TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L	*Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 

raise3

windy

PacificLegend

X中国陆军

阳光明媚

greenback

mikeqc

1st page

oldfox

whoami

dddddddddddddd

妞妞

dreampen

thanks !

bucks

brcm

...............顶................

jWishbone

Finally, I kept refreshing my screen. Thanks.

skipjack

Thanks

xiaochong

看了一下，好象今天没人喊崩了
星星怎么也不来了呢？

t-k

Ave

yanjun