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【原创】《青蛙抄个股》 -- Catch a falling knife

热度 6已有 929 次阅读2012-12-8 12:10 AM |个人分类:ZZDD

这是我自己的一些零星评论,没有顺序,胡乱抄在这儿。您如果认为全都是胡说也没有关系,哈哈!
Almost everything in this blog is selectively copied from
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=181945
However, I am the author, 不是转抄,是原创。

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Catch a falling knife, that is a kind of my style.
Scared? Go to somewhere else. :)

1.jpg
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所谓TA,就是概率,肯定会错,但是对的可能性大就去做。错了就止损。
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我劝你不要跟别人, 即使是真高手也不要跟。。。走自己的路。。。只有通过自己的试错改正,才能真正学到东西。别人的东西,只能学个大原则,最后要经过消化变成自己的东西。。。
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所有的东东,都靠自己慢慢摸索,犯了错误,慢慢总结·经验教训,才逐渐变成·自己的东西。所谓“师傅领进门,修行在个人”也。。。
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Attitude (心态) is everything.
Don't listen to everybody, listen to yourself, and someone you can trust with a little caution
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能不能说说买、卖的原因啊?
一般来讲,您看图就应该知道了,多看我的交易,就知道我的风格。

我有一个程序选股,我买卖时大体上也是只看一下图,老实说我那时连是什么公司,干啥的都不知道。
而且,在 trading time, 根本没有时间解释。
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I stopped buying in the morning, and make decision near market close. It may reduce or increase risks. Be aware of it. Buying at market price usually means I am in a hurry, which may increase risks too.
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I don't know if you have noticed it or not, I am doing ST, the period is shorter than Daoge. If I see the stock in my portfolio drop, I will sell it pretty fast. I don't regret even I sold it too early, and may miss a big up trip. Keep my capital is more important than making money.
If you don't set stop-loss, then you should not buy stocks nor follow my picks. Sorry!
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谢谢大家让我知道!我是青蛙,需要听到大家的反馈,真的!!!
有互动才像个论坛,对不对?

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Somebody told me: "我已经买入 XXXX ,如果你有什么行动请告诉我,谢谢!" 
My answer: "I will try, but you never have a guarantee."

Tell you what I bought does NOT give me an obligation to report when I sell it. The reasons I have told here before on this thread. If you want, you can try to find it. I don't have time to tell the same thing again and again.
Please always remember: YMYD.
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I will, but no guarantee. Remember, always set your own stop-loss according to your own risk tolerance.
Why no guarantee?
1) I am not always on the internet
2) I might forget.
3) If the market is sharp down, I might be too busy to sell many stuff. When I am done with mine, then post, it might be too late for you.
4) I might sell it at wrong time, important thing to remember too!
Be careful!

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It is just too much burden. And also I don't remember which stocks I bought have been posted here.
Yes, this does mean I trade more stocks than I post here.
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If you do something wrong or not too good, take notes, don't regret, move on!
The key concept is taking emotions out of the trading table!
This has made me a little better trader.

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I did not know the market would be down today. However, I do know we face a lot of uncertainties.
Uncertainty never is a friend of traders. In this case, be defensive, that was really what in my mind.
We cannot be always correct, but we can always be defensive.
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My thinking on stop-loss/stop-gain
1) You must follow your own rules, and follow them strictly
2) Rules are NOT always right on certain situation. don't change the rules on the operation time, never! just follow them.
3) Modify the rules when necessary, follow the new rules strictly again. Never change them on trading time.
Attitude (心态) is everything.
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This was posted last time, just add a little
1) You must follow your own rules, and follow them strictly
2) Rules are NOT always right on certain situation. don't change the rules on the operation time, never! just follow them.
3) Modify the rules when necessary, follow the new rules strictly again. Never change them on trading time.
4) Only make change on rules when you have a clear thinking and enough time to test the new rules. Hurry change usually cause new problems.
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我在学习一位朋友的 选股+组合 的交易方法
这位朋友是理论水平很高的,我也不十分清楚他的方法。我只是想学他的组合交易的概念,就是用某种选股方法买很多股票,然后淘优汰劣。降低交易风险。大致如此吧。 他是程序交易的,我现在是手动交易。也许将来会程序交易。

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我一般不猜市场,我也一般不抱幻想。错了就止损,就是止损错了也不后悔。遵守纪律第一, 不会每次都对,只要对的概率比较高就可以。
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请大家原谅,我做股票是非常粗线条的,并不要求买在最低,卖在最高。因为我的目标是将来做 程序交易。我把自己看成机器,比较笨的。而且不怕接飞刀。
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When you short, your anticipation is down, if it goes opposite direction, then that was a mistake.
When you should stop-loss? It also depends on your anticipation, the stock will go up or down from here? If you anticipate it will go down, then you should keep it patiently, and vice versa。 Of course, there is a possibility, the new anticipation is wrong again. That is why we make decision based on probability, because we are not sure what will happen tomorrow.
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Q. Can I hold stock XXX?
Make your own decision.

I sold it because I have a discipline, which let me sell it if anything up 5% or more in one day. It is NOT because I anticipate it down tomorrow. You see I bought more stocks today. I almost forgot my discipline today until very late.

Why did I forget? Because I lost profit on AMD/ANR, since I sold them too early,
I regretted. I should not regret on them  since I followed my own discipline. Period!

This discipline let me only take certain amount of profit, after that, if the stock goes to sky, I should NOT regret.


I might change my discipline, when I find a better new one.
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Old Turkey said, "My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

wsjboy said: "You buy another stock at the same time. You will have a new position!"
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Q。
前几天也看你在一直买,哪会有这么多机会的,提醒而已哈。
A.
我其实也一直在卖,总的 position 没有增加很多
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my SLV strategy:
SLV,高了就卖,跌了就买回来。套住就不动。
This strategy cannot be used for 2X, 3X silver ETFs. SLV is actually hold bullion
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现在是超买再超买,我的ISI不灵了。。。
不过多折腾几次,我对ISI理解的更深刻了
这几天最大收获是我的地雷战和我的均归选股战术有机结合起来了,似乎效果很好,收益明显增加。。。不过要长期看才真正算数,慢慢来

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Q. 看老大最近买了不少货,你是认为大盘会继续牛?
A.
1) I am buying, also selling, the total position did not increase a lot. I usually only post buying trades.
2) I am adjusting my strategies, something new on setting mines. I set too many mines, which actually caused I bought a little too much today.
3) Stop-loss needs to be fast for sure.
4) The problem will be corrected and improved gradually. I am not worrying too much.
Thank you for your question!!!!!
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Please remember!!!! Act only on what you see, but NOT on what you think, or on some prediction by someone else.
I learned this lesson long time ago. The greatest forecaster can be correct 9 times, but wrong just one time, which happened to be the only one you listened.You cannot even complain, because he/she was correct many times before. Nobody can be correct all the time.

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I don't use many indicators you guys use. I am trading stocks very fast and rough. I am very calm and almost no emotions, no worry, no excitement, treat myself as a machine.
This is my way.
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假如我出早了, 我不后悔,因为 1. 我盈利(或者输钱)了,2. 我有现金,3. 后悔无用而且影响心情
但是我总结经验教训。
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XX 发表于 2013-4-18 04:40 PM
同时我想改变目前80%的人炒股输钱这个残酷现实...
而我要做的,就是给天下所有炒股输钱的胡同居民,研究稳定赚钱的方法,并且公开。大家都赚钱了,
肯定心情好....
不管您的动机如何好, 花多少努力,您的所谓目标就和物理学上要制造所谓“永动机”一样, 是一个永远也不可能实现的目标。
而且永动机是并不违反热力学第一定律, 即能量守恒定律的。永动机只是违反了热力学第二定律,即熵增加原理。而您的目标甚至是违反了热力学第一定律,比永动机还要荒谬。。。请原谅我的直截了当。。。

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你必须先学会看图,学会TA,严格执行纪律,然后就可以:
花街给你信号让你割肉,你就割肉,你割肉了,花街就反弹。 
花街给你信号让你追涨,你就追涨,你追涨了,花街就开始跌。
你花钱花时间,学的TA,都是花街让你学的。
学完了,你就跟着猪群,严格执行纪律,排队进绞肉机了。
这段话很幽默,看起来也似乎很有道理,而且确实大部分散户进了绞肉机。。。

但是这段话是非常非常之错的,为什么呢?
1) 不存在所谓铁板一块的MM,阴谋论是错的。那些华尔街的大佬们也是有赔有赚的,他们之间的关系不是合作关系,而是竞争关系  - 你死我活的竞争关系。
2) TA 无用论是错的,TA是有用的。问题是您真的学会了吗? 能够灵活应用吗?知道 TA 会发生例外吗? 知道如果错了的补救办法吗?有没有把TA 和 FA 结合起来用?等等,等等。。。
3) 您的心态健康吗?您的资金管理到位吗?您的危险控制措施有几条?
4) 您能严格执行您自己定的纪律吗?
5) 您犯错了,丢钱了,您能保持冷静,总结经验教训吗?还是到处“55555555555~~~”
6) 。。。。。。。。
不要怕错, 不要怕丢钱, 怕的是 “不吃一堑,长一智”,这才是真正可怕的事情啊 。。。
My 3 cents
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我炒股是非常粗线条的,马马虎虎,有点 profit,看到形势不太好,可能就卖了,根本不去考虑 target。
卖错了也不后悔,真的

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看到个标题,震胡同/踩大千,, 有感而发
我是谁也不跟的。老蛇也不跟?是的,老蛇也不跟。
为什么呢?理由很简单,只有靠自己,才能逐渐进步。
故事呢,那就老长老长了。。。以后有空慢慢写出来。。。会是一个很好的自己小结的机会。
Q。 wsjboy, 你算老几?敢在这儿宣传“谁也不跟”?
A.   wsjboy 啥也不算,不会预测,不敢参加比赛,不是老大,赚钱不多,。。。但是就是有那么一点点熊心水牛胆,敢说谁也不跟。

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我相信:复杂的事简单做,简单的事重复做。
不见得能赚大钱,但是就是因为 简单而且重复,就可以不断改进,赚点小钱应该不是问题。
---- 低手感言
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Q. (某高手)你看到谁炒股票赚到大钱了?
A. 您呀,还有您佩服的那些高手们!
您可能说了,那还是小钱。但是小和大是相对的,您的小 对我来说,就是非常大了。。。对不对?

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在论坛上,理论和高手都太多,别人水平不是高过自己不知多少倍。但是因为方法是别人的,自己并不真正理解,别人也不见得和盘托出。我发现自己凡是想模仿高手炒作,多数不成功。还是用自己简单而且重复的炒作,成功率较高。如果失败,也比较容易总结经验教训,下次做好点。
低手再发点感言,也许是谬论

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一般人认为个股难炒,都去抄大盘,ETF。那里研究的人多,MM也多。个股每个有每个特点,对付的不同MM,看起来比较难。实际上容错也比较大,东方不亮西方亮。危险性反而降低了 ----- my 2 cents
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Don't be a binary trader. If you're a binary trader, this will happen sooner or later. The better binary trader must have better risk control system.
故事在这儿: http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=212926&extra=page%3D1&page=1
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GuoYang 发表于 2013-5-22 08:39 PM
竹密何妨流水过,山高哪碍野云飞
Who cares about bull or bear
说出了我的心里话, 谢谢!   
想当初,我对 cobra 说了类似的话,他告诉我,老是牛牛能赚钱,老是熊熊也能赚钱,像我这样不牛不熊的就只有赔钱的份了。(大意)
当时我无法分辨,因为我的确还在赔钱阶段,虽然赔钱不多。但是我现在可以稳定赚钱了, 虽然赚钱不多,但是在稳定提高。
还不到扬眉吐气的时候,但是轻轻的舒了一口气。。。
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在这个几乎人人担心明天会发生什么事的日子里,我的观点和应对措施:
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1) 观点:不知道,继续上涨 或者 回调 甚至 崩盘 都有可能
2)应对措施:
    A) 不抢跑,让领导先走
    B) 留足 CASH
    C) 每天 Buy DIP(个股),有利就走。尽量 buy 有分红个股 dip ,卖的时候留 10-20% 进入我的 long term investment 小三小四队伍, 参看这里:
        http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php ... &extra=page%3D1
    D) 适当 hedge, 有机会就 buy dip 买一点 TWM/QID/SDS 等为 多头做一点保护
    E) 进可以攻,退可以守,兵来将挡,水来土遁
    F) 心情平静,吃饭睡觉正常,不用担心明天发生什么事。
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Q. 这个明天是泛指,对吗?
A.  对的,哪一天的明天都可以。但是对现在这种人心惶惶,贪婪和恐惧都接近高点的时候就更为实用。
===========
欢迎大家批评指正。。。
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Cobra 发表于 2013-5-27 05:59 PM
个股基本跟大盘走,所以确实只要做大盘就可以了,尤其是现在有很多leveraged fund,因此做大盘不见得比做个股收益差。只做大盘的好处是相对简单点,对了就是对了,不像做个股,有时候大盘对了,但你得个股反而跌。
是有个别个股在大盘弱的时候,比大盘强的,不过,我们trading,不能去赌这种相对几率低一点点的事情。
那么是否做个股就没有意义了呢?当然不是。有可能会出现大盘不怎么动,既小幅涨跌的情况,这时候你如果有资金的话,做base and breakout,就能充分提高效率。
不同意老蛇的观点:

1)做大盘就是做 市场平均值的 Binary trader, 不是熊就是牛, 只有两种状态,丢失了大量市场信息,容错较小,增加了可能的判断失误造成的 RISK。事实上,没有一位高手永远是对的。
2)如果用 leveraged ETF, 如果猜对了,当然可以增加收益;但是 leveraged ETF 也大大地放大了可能的判断失误造成的 RISK。网上很多曾经的著名高手失踪,我猜想很有可能就是这样造成的。
3)做单个个股当然 RISK 较高,但如果做个股组合,可以大大降低交易风险,这正是现代组合交易的理论基础。
4 ) 做个股也不等于只能做 BASE 和 BREAKOUT, 事实上, MEAN 和 REVERSAL 也是现代组合交易理论支持的另一种方法。

不对之处,欢迎批评指正。
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jamesmith 发表于 2013-5-28 07:29 AM
You really think they can control the market as they wish?

big players have too much money to manage. Size matters!
large size = force diversification, need to invest into many more things, because you can only put certain amount into one pick
large size = forces you to look at large caps, where most of the competitions are
large size = much harder to get high % return
These are really difficult problems...

With proper training and the right mindset, individual investors can beat most fund managers.
非常同意您的观点,谢谢!
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dividend_growth 发表于 2013-5-27 10:54 AM
顺势交易系统在震荡市中就是这个惨状。
当然趋势一旦形成,就看反趋势那帮子哭爹叫妈了。
真正进绞肉机的,则是在错误的时间运用错误系统的。
高手啊!!!! 总结的太精辟了,希望大家都认真想一想 dividend_growth 说的话。
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