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the plan from seekingalpha

热度 4已有 716 次阅读2015-3-15 10:53 PM

THE PLAN 37 comments
Feb 24, 2015 12:25 PM | about stocks: UPROUVXYSPXUSPY

Right now I am 50% UPRO in my biggest accounts. All of the buy trigger points are going to be either talking about % up over the most recent Top (SPY - 208.72 on 12/29/14) or mini-draw timing. Remember each mini-draw is at least 1.8% move down on more than one day in a row. The mini-draw ends on the first up day (I mean a decent up day, at least 0.3% up SPY). This is a slightly modified version of my Short strategy. Since we did not have a beginning of the year run there is a higher probability that this Top to Top run is 3-5% vs the normal 2-3% expected Top to Top run.

*Stay 50% UPRO until

*1.5% over Top = go to 33% UPRO = 1x the market

*2% over Top = go to 0% UPRO

*2.5% over Top = buy 4% UVXY (start shorting market)

*3.5% over Top = buy 8% UVXY

*5% over Top = buy 8% UVXY

Obviously if you don't hit those targets then you don't buy. If you are still long UPRO and we hit a -1.8%+ draw over more than 1 day then you sell all UPRO.

If you are long UVXY and the mini-draw starts I would hold on to your UVXY until you reach at least a 10% profit. I plan on holding until the 2nd mini-draw gets going or about 4%+ draw (Since 2003 there have only been 3 SPY draws of 3%+ that did not have at least 2 mini-draws. 3 of 38. 2 of the 3 single mini-draws happened shortly after the stock market bottomed in 2003 and 2009. Pretty good odds).

In the mean time I also found another "can't miss" strategy. Short the first bounce after the 1st mini-draw. Since we are more than 90% certain a second mini-draw is coming soon if you immediately short the 1st up day after the 1st mini-draw you will make good money. My calculations show an average move lower after that 1st bounce of 1.9% with a low profit of 1.2% and a high of 5.2%.

*Short 60% SPXU on 1st up day after the 1st mini-draw

I plan to sell the 60% SPXU after the 2nd mini-draw looks over (at least 1.2% lower than buy point) or somewhere in the 4% draw range. At that point I will start to get long.

*Buy 33%-50% UPRO around 4% draw or when you think 2nd mini-draw is finished

The last 50% UPRO I will save for either the 3rd mini-draw (20 out of 37 draws since 2003 have 3 or more mini-draws) or when I feel the VCO signals say it is safe to put the rest in.

*When market gets back to 0.5% over last top I will go 33% UPRO

*When market gets to 1.5% over last top I will go to Cash and start shorting again. This time shorting at 1.5%, 2.25%, 3% and 5% as my normal plan states. Rinse and repeat.

BTW- Have been sick off and on this entire month. Haven't kept up on my Motif or posting here but I have been working here and there and have found lots of exciting info to play the markets.

Keep in mind the 1.8% Rule. I will be updating the article soon with all of the data since 1999.


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