SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
四点说明:
- 不清楚明天是涨还是跌。不过根据今天的Trading Signals,FOMC day,有73%的机会收绿。
- 明天FOMC,一般intraday都会涨到2:15pm ET announcement的时候,然后有过山车看。
- 大方向,7天里跌了2天,因此根据7 Days Rule,连strong rebound都算不上,所以又增加了一个这仅仅是rebound的证据。不过,还是老话,一个结论可以confirm再confirm直到too late,因此各人必须根据自己的risk level决定confirm到什么程度就要action。
- 不能排除the high was in or very close的可能。这个high可能是短期的也可能是中期的,目前并不确定,要走着瞧。
下面三幅图是我说不能排除the high was in or very close的主要理由:
今天gap up, higher high then close in red,因此是个bearish reversal day,从下面的图可以看到,是至少短期顶部的可能性很大。特别是以前都是最多一个蓝色箭头,下一次Bearish Reversal Day后马上就pullback了(红箭头),而我们这次已经连续2个蓝箭头了,我的问题是,第三次还是蓝箭头吗(就是说还会多涨几天而不是明天就跌)?
今天SPX higher high了,但VIX却没有,而且是连着两个反转意味很强的棒棒。一般,VIX leads,所以这可能意味着SPX要反转向下了。
第三个理由比较subtle,RSP是equal weighted SPX ETF,因此RSP lag的话,就意味最近的上涨仅仅是由几个heavy weighted stocks引起的,比较可疑。有兴趣的可以自己看看$VLE and $NYA,明显的距离上一次 Swing High要比SPX远很多,同样也是说这一轮上涨的质量存疑。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH WEEK
According Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 16 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.1%.
See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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