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本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2012-3-17 10:39 编辑
做长期投资的,傻一点好,不要乱折腾(套用中央的话),盯住你的SECTOR。
这里分享一下我们公司的投资研究:
In US dollars. For the 85 years from 1926 to 2011, the compound annual growth rate of return was 11.31% for the Small Cap Index, 9.78% for the Large Cap Index, 5.73% for the Long-Term Government Bond Index, 3.57% for Treasury Bills, and 2.99% for Inflation (CPI). Small Cap Index provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index®, provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Long-Term Government Bond Index (twenty-year), Treasury Bills (one-month), and Inflation (Consumer Price Index) are © Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work of Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies; as a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Compound returns have an assumed rate of return, are hypothetical, and are not representative of any specific type of investment. Standard deviation is one method of measuring risk and performance, and is presented as an approximation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
这张图里可以看见大萧条时代的DIP,70年代的DIP,和2008年的DIP。有三点结论:
1,在历史长河里,DIP都是短期的。
2,投资股市的回报,好过债市。
3,风险和回报并存。
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