08/05/2010 大盘回顾 （Pivot Day Tomorrow?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/6,8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/2,8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/06 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low. *0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L *07/23 low *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: PIVOT DAY TOMORROW, NOW LOOKS LIKE A TOP

 

维持08/06 pivot date可能是顶(either short-term or intermediate-term top)的预测（理由见08/03 Market Recap）。下面两幅图更让我觉得明天(+/- 1 day)是顶的可能性很大，特别是如果open high close lower的话。顺便说，尽管我猜顶部就在附近，不过，trading wise，我总是让领导先走的，因此并不意味着I'm shorting this market。

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，太低了，至少我不认为大盘还有多少上涨空间。

 

 

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume，有点低，因此有顶部的嫌疑。

 

 

明天的NFP，可能不差，不过这个不是我的报告应该讨论的范围，所以就不说理由了。纯TA角度讲，我在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了，明天如果低开，空多半很快会补，理由很简单，下面的图是自2009年三月以来所有SPY未补的gap，大家看看，有没有back to back两个空在一起很久没补的？Gap和Gap之间至少都要隔几天是吧？ 因此今天SPY低开后未补的空（pink line）基本上可以保证明天的gap down (if any)很快会补。

 

 

关于NFP Report Day，下面的内容来自Bespoke，供参考。

If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and the market opens up, history says not to chase it. If the report comes in much weaker than expected and the market opens down, investors should buy on weakness.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

zxy600

回复 1# Cobra


    sf!

hillcrest

谢谢班长！

IMeMyself

Bench

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

happyface

thanks so much

xiaochong

班长能预知未来哈08/06/2010 大盘回顾

can2000

Thanks

vicvic

yanjun

栀子花开

Fisrt page !

Bencat

but today is not 8/6/2010, Cobra!

Diver

回复 1# Cobra

栀子花开

班长能预知未来哈08/06/2010 大盘回顾
xiaochong 发表于 2010-8-5 20:17

   
发现这个错误是不是应该加分？！

usamonkey

胡同儿串子

lehldk

SO tomorrow, officially up huge.

开小差

thx,ding

Alchemist

Ave