2014巴西总统选举第二轮

bigbadwolf · 发表于 2014-10-26 08:43 PM

本帖最后由 bigbadwolf 于 2014-10-26 10:13 PM 编辑

Brazil Stock ETF Tumbles in Tokyo on Rousseff’s Victory

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff

An exchange-traded fund investing in Brazilian equities plunged the most in three years in Tokyo after President Dilma Rousseff won re-election, damping speculation for a change in policies that have wiped out $553 billion of stock market value and left the economy in recession.

The NEXT FUNDS Ibovespa Linked ETF (1325) dropped 6.3 percent at 10:06 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for the biggest drop since September 2011. Brazil’s benchmark equity gauge, which has rallied 16 percent from this year’s low in March amid bets that Rousseff would be ousted by Senator Aecio Neves, may tumble as much as 10 percent when it opens today, according to Leme Investimentos.

Rousseff, who has maintained record-low unemployment even as the economy recorded the slowest growth under any Brazilian president in more than two decades, had 52 percent of the vote with 99.7 percent of ballots counted by the electoral court in Brasilia. The Ibovespa lost 25 percent since Rousseff took office in January 2011, while shares of state-owned oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) tumbled 40 percent and the real weakened 33 percent against the dollar.

“Her victory was not totally priced in yet,” Bianca Taylor, a Boston-based senior sovereign analyst and strategist at Loomis Sayles & Co., which oversees $223.2 billion in global assets, including Brazilian sovereign and corporate bonds, said by phone. “We should see a slump in Brazil assets as a whole in the next few days.”

Volumes Surge

Trading in the Tokyo-listed ETF were more than 300 percent higher than the 20-day average for this time of day, with the security heading for its lowest close since March 27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Throughout the campaign, Brazil’s stock market and currency retreated when polls indicated Rousseff might win, including a 6.8 percent drop in the Ibovespa (IBOV) during the final week as polls showed her support rising. Neves said in his concession speech that he phoned Rousseff to congratulate her on the victory, calling on the president to unify the country.

Rousseff defended her economic performance by saying she preserved jobs in the face of the global economic crisis. While the economy entered recession in the first half of this year, September’s 4.9 percent unemployment rate was a record low for the month. Real average income has risen 10 percent during Rousseff’s tenure and 33 percent in the past decade.

Finance Minister

Investors will turn their focus to Rousseff’s choice for finance minister, Frederico Sampaio, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investments Brazil, which manages about $900 million, said in a telephone interview. Rousseff said last month that her new government would have a fresh team, including a replacement for Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

The president’s fiscal policies fueled Brazil’s first sovereign rating cut in more than a decade, while the increased role the government took in state-run companies in attempts to control inflation sapped profits at Petrobras and electric utility Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA. (ELET6)

“There’s going to be enormous disappointment in the markets that we have not had an opposition victory,” Geoffrey Dennis, head of emerging-market strategy at UBS AG, said in a phone interview. The Ibovespa may drop as much as 7.6 percent, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Filipe Pacheco in Sao Paulo at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Patterson at [email protected] Chan Tien Hin