股市茶坊之2008第13周 -- 金融版块

jsl

agree, there are a few things that I anticipate will determine the timing and magnitude.

 I had said somewhere else that I feel that the job report will beat expectaion, second quarter earnings may be a mix or better, but investors initial reaction will be selling before that, talking about that is too early anyways. The first quarters earnings are not going to be good at all. With all these in mind, the more likely senario may be that

1) rally due to better than expected economic data, short term TA also support that

2) sell due to bad first quarter earnings

3) sell due to fear of second quarter/ also depends on hint from macro data

4) ? due to second quarter

 

 Financial may rise and fall with 1) and 2), wether it will be slow or not, probably depends on overall market

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-3-22 00:47 编辑 ]

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-3-22 00:45 发表 agree, there are a few things that I anticipate will determine the timing and magnitude.  I had said somewhere else that I feel that the job report will beat expectaion, second quarter earnings ...

 

what you put here is very good fundamental-analytical framework for short/mid-term speculation.

 

when I was saying "slow drop", i didn't consider the effect of ER season, short-term expectation, and corrections of such expectation should it be either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic. When you put everything together, it gives the dynamics of short/mid term stock market.

xiaobailong

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-3-22 00:45 发表 agree, there are a few things that I anticipate will determine the timing and magnitude.  I had said somewhere else that I feel that the job report will beat expectaion, second quarter earnings ...

lu-ping

xiaobailong

秋祖德说：

Another Giant is on the way down

BOA好像也要write down很多。

xiaobailong

老割说：

给一个利好, 不管牛熊的.

GS大裁员

xiaobailong

看了半天，不知道牛熊了。周一还是观战吧，顶多DT。

xiaobailong

发信人: immortal (immortal), 信区: Investment
标 题: Re: 金融板块为什么疯涨？次贷危机过去了？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Mar 22 20:12:35 2008)

考， 好虫高见哈。 吸吸

（三个不代表： 不代表我老支持原作者观点，不代表我老反对原作者观点， 不代表我
老关心原作者观点）

【 在 goodbug (科黑之父) 的大作中提到: 】
: 还会再涨，涨到散户都觉得危机过去了，牛市开始了，踏空了。
: 另一波大跌就开始了。



--

xiaobailong

 刚才lascolinas 提醒， 俺才想起来俺还有一个系统，可以看个股涨跌的。

系统说XLF 10% bullish, 90% bearish. 现在是26.32, 往上走阻力重重，27附近就是一个三重阻力区, 28和29又各自有两重阻力.

往下走, 空间很大. 第一目标25, 第二目标23.

特别声明, 这个系统没有经过任何测试, 俺也从来没有根据这个系统trade过。Just For Fun.

xiaobailong

而反指SKF呢, 系统说, 85% bullish,  15% bearish.

现在价位106.66,  往上走, 第一目标112, 第二目标123, 第三目标132.
往下走,.... ,.... 系统说,本来应该走到112就停住的,没想到跑到112下面去了, 所以, 现在下面没有目标了.

特别声明, ....  不用声明了, 现在大家已经看到这个系统break了。。。。。

KAI2002

谢谢小白龙！

xiaobailong

谁给分析一下为什么FNM涨那么多？我隐约知道一点好像是政府修改了一个什么东东，但是到底是什么有这么大的魔力呢？既然如此，为什么没有早一点拿出来用呢？哪位FA高手给分析一下？