通货膨胀 --》通货紧缩 (Follow Up), pls ZT

股帝

Let me explain a bit here to clear some of the confusions.

1. I haven't change my view on a long term inflation picture yet. i.e., I still view this current period as a price correction, not a deflation.

2. However, I start to concern about the situation based on the data I see and start to worry that, deflation might be in the early stage of developing. And that's the reason I post 通货膨胀 --》通货紧缩. After all, preparing your mind with a "What happened" is very important in all stages of your life to preserve your wealth.

3. We all need to understand that, in the US history, there have been many false alarms in deflation and time and time again, the Fed was able to stimulate the economic recovery so that US did not fall into deflation.

4. US is very different from Japan in spending culture. American will not stop spending like Japaniese did back then. Once there is sign of econoic upturn, American will start to spend like there is no tomorrow. Saving for a rainy day has never been the culture here. This could very well explain that, why US hasn't been in a true deflation at all.

Also, I still have commodities holding in my portfolio right now. And if 通货紧缩 does come, those holdings will be hit. That's why I need to bring up the concern. However, for anyone with large cash reserve, and can substain the termporary big hit to their RE and portfolio, and can survive that deflation period, 通货紧缩 is not too bad. And that's exactly why we need to track the data carefully to prepare for it.

But I will not get rid of all commodities holding as well because it's very risky move. What happened if this is just a price correction, not a deflation? Commodities will resume its uptrend movement. After all, there are only that much resources in the world to be shared by a growing global population.

So, the purpose of 通货膨胀 --》通货紧缩 was to express my concern and to present a possibility of event for us to discuss, it does not mean that I have changed my stand on the long term inflation picture.

I hope this is clear. And one more time, I don't suggest anyone to simply follow anyone's advice to make investment decisions. To be honest, that's very FOOLISH.







[ 本帖最后由 股帝 于 2008-10-2 08:30 编辑 ]

seafood

jilier

 

aght

liblib123

mikeqc

ding

Ytrader

Thanks for posting such a nice one. I would like to seek your opinion on gold's performance in deflation enviroment. I was think ingabout this. If we think it is commodity, then of course, it will drop. But If we treat gold as money, then its value will increase in deflation, which makes it different from other commodities. Of course, gold's price will rise in inflation. Therefore, I tends to think gld is more attractive than other commodities. How you think about this?

Poo

humbletrader

Lilac

qingbangmang

今天的跌就是因为这个吧。

qingbangmang

等commodities 跌倒75%再来买。反正现在怕怕了。

KAI2002

这也许还有宗教的原因吧？ 耶稣说“在天上积累财富远比在地上积累财富重要”，还有上帝会照顾小鸟，更不要说人了，只要上帝喜欢你。