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发表于 2010-12-28 01:37 AM
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这个观点和未名股版版副蒙古大夫的看法不谋而合。我转载如下：
发信人: Lexian (蒙古大夫), 信区: Stock
标 题: We are at the dawn of a history moment
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 20 22:22:59 2010, 美东)
Next week, at most in the next 2 wk, Market will move north of 1220 and
finally come out of the shadow of the deepest recession since the great
depression. over the last two weeks, all 3 index finish testing the 10wk
line and ready for the decisive move.
in term of historic comparison, this is very similar to the winter of 2004,
after the slaughter of 2002, market ran a steep reversal in 2003 and reach
the cliff of final down leg at about 1150, and it took almost the whole
summer and fall of 2004 to finish the handle. By the end of Oct, Market
decidedly march north and break 1150. It was the time when people realize
the recession is "over". The correction of 2010 is deeper and shorter
compare to the 2004 one, and therefore gives a feeling of more volatile, but
still within 38.2% retracement, which indicates a likelihood of breakout.
mention of 2004 remind me a few things: that year i got a few dollars left
after paying the necessities. first thing i did was wiring some money back
to China for 定金 of a nice upscale condo that was just start construction.
I bought blindly because i didn't have time to go back. Just have a feeling
that when people get rich, what they want first is a decent living space,
not crowded in a small room with 3 generations. (it turn out right, most of
my colleagues were telling me buy RE in the US coz that was the THING at the
time). The rest of money i put in a amtd account and started investing (not
trading) myself. From MSN money's fund screener, i pick up EEM, EWZ, EWW.
all three were emerging market ishare funds. at the time, guru was saying
don't put over 5% in the emerging market. hell, all 3 beats spx by a wide
margin. |
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