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发表于 2011-2-11 09:09 AM
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SmarTrend Market Summary
Yesterday’s mixed equity markets were supported by strength among energy company shares, but suffered from a sell-off in tech shares that included an unexplained tumble in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares, that erased $10 billion in the firm’s capitalization in the blink of an eye. Matters in Egypt remained unresolved, with the President’s speech fifteen minutes before close failing to meet expectations for his immediate departure; the euro fell precipitously after the ECB was forced to step in and support a struggling Portuguese debt auction; the US Fed announced plans to scale back its bond buybacks next month, citing a “technical correction.” A number of key corporate results disappointed and this morning Kraft’s (NYSE:KFT) results join PepsiCo’s (NYSE:PEP), out yesterday, to reveal the impact of rising input price inflation on profits and future guidance. The day’s heavy-hitter of economic reports, the weekly claims number, show filings dropped to their lowest level in 2 ½ years; but the data was shrugged off by investors unwilling to applaud numbers perhaps skewed by winter snowstorm activity.
This morning’s markets reveal risk aversion growing, with risk trade unsettled by problems in Cairo, feared likely to push throughout North Africa and the Middle East; as inflationary pressures in fast-growing emerging nations continue to put pressures on governments to curb growth and address civilian unrest; and as sovereign debt concerns in eurozone periphery rear their heads. US futures point to a weak start today; Asian markets were mixed; European bourses lower. The Shanghai Composite closed up 0.3%, the Hang Seng up 0.5%, but Australia’s commodity-laden S&P/ASX 200 closed off 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday. China’s premier Wen Jiabao pledged to increase spending to lower food inflation. China’s central bank announced plans to adjust reserve requirements at different banks to diminish loan growth. European bourses softened, with the CAC off 1.2%, the DAX down 0.7% and the FTSE 100 trading 0.6% lower.
By session’s end Thursday, the DJIA had shed 11 points for a 0.1% decline to 12,229, with fourteen of its thirty components off on the day. Gains above 1% were accorded American Express (NYSE:AXP), up 1.9%, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), up 1.6%, AT&T (NYSE:T) 1%, with 0.9% advances in United Tech (NYSE:UTX), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and DuPont (NYSE:DD), and a 0.8% climb in Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT).
Weighing on the DJIA, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) shares tumbled 14.2% after the networking giant reported a 18% fall in quarterly profits from a year earlier despite a 6% revenue gain as gross margins dropped to 60.2% from 64.5%. Guidance for the third quarter was also lowered, leaving investors wondering whether the issues were Cisco’s or a harbinger of broader industry weakness. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) dropped 1.7%. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) fell 2% after UBS (NYSE:UBS) analysts downgraded the shares to “neutral” from “buy,” and placed a twelve-month price target of $60 on the shares.
Despite softness in tech company shares, the NASDAQ managed a 0.1% gain to finish at 2790, achieved in spite of the earnings disappointments from Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), the fall-off in Cisco price, and a 1% drop in Apple shares that was variously attributed to reports of short lines at Verizon’s (NYSE:VZ) stores for its new iPhone launch, and then the go-to rumors that Steve Jobs’ health was deteriorating. Wynn (NASDAQ:WYNN) shares dropped 1.1%; after the close the firm reported a return to profitability in its latest quarter, and beat projections as revenues from its Macau casino surged 79%. Seventy-five of the NASDAQ’s one hundred managed gains.
Although the headlines yesterday provided a number of earnings disappointments, overall results remain favorable for S&P500 firms. About 74% of the 339 S&P500 firms reported since January 10 have topped analysts’ expectations. The S&P500 reflected the trends and increased 0.1% on the day to finish at 1322, climbing a wall of expert expectations for a market correction. Eight of the ten industry sectors advanced, led by oil and gas (+1%), telecommunications (0.6%), basic materials (+0.5%), industrials (+0.5%), consumer services (+0.3%), health care (+0.2%), utilities (+0.1%) and financials (+0.1%). Weighing on the index, tech shares lost 0.6% and consumer goods 0.3%.
The US dollar gained as its safety appeal drew investors; the DXY rose 0.8% against a basket of foreign currencies to 78.327. The dollar also advanced against the euro after a weak reception of a Portuguese debt auction forced ECB support.
Gold prices, normally another safety vehicle, lost $3, for a 0.2% decline to $1362.50. Gold’s safe-haven allure was countered by the dollar’s increase.
Oil prices held steady in yesterday’s trade, closing at $86.73.
Prices for US Treasuries priced lower yesterday, with the 10-year closing off 8/32 as its yield rose to 3.702%. Following strong foreign bidding for Wednesday’s auction of 10-years, yesterday’s sale of 30-years underwhelmed, with yields slightly higher than expected. Following the sale, the Fed announced its intentions to reduce next month’s bond buybacks to $15 billion from $97 billion, although noting the action taken as a technical correction due to higher mortgage rates.
Among yesterday’s economic data, weekly jobless claims fell by a much larger-than-anticipated 36K to 383K, the lowest since July, 2008, and well below estimates of 412K. According to economists, the level of current claims is a mere 60K claims above what is normal at full employment; however, the constancy of such results were doubted and laid to the feet of recent snowstorms. Continuing claims also moved lower, down to 3.888 million from 3.935 million prior and off estimates of 3.9 million.
December’s wholesale inventory results showed a 1% jump in inventories to their highest levels since January, 2009, up from the prior month’s 0.2% decline, and above estimates for a 0.7% increase. Sales rose 0.4% to their highest since August, 2008.
Today’s data is expected to show the nation’s December trade balance modestly higher at a $40.5 billion deficit, up from November’s $38.3 billion.
A first look at Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge is expected to show an increase to 75 from 74.2.
According to our analytics team, trading environment trend indicators are continuing to move in a downward, corrective manner. All four near-term trend indicators retreated slightly yesterday, even though none had been overbought. This process is likely to continue today and the retreat is expected to cause the DJIA to test 12,150 again today. |
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发表于 2011-2-11 09:04 AM
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