07/14/2011 Market Outlook (Diamond as Half Stuff)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

Chart pattern看起像是Diamond Bottom acts as continuation pattern，因此理论上讲，下跌的路才走了一半。另外，从图上看，RSP已经跌到06/22 high了，由于RSP是equal weighted S&P 500，因此RSP领先SPY down说明实际情况远比SPX表面看起来要坏，而SPX，大家知道，是可以通过hold几个heavy weighted stocks而使图看起不是那么难看的。总之，RSP领跌，不是好事情。

 

关注Non-Stop Model的，sell signal今天可能触发了，因此明天要close long position，如果是aggressive trader的话可以考虑short，当然也可以多等几天to close long then start short，以防是whipsaw。关于这个sell信号的准确度可以参看我的public chart list, from 8.2.2a Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2004 to 8.2.2g Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2010，好像准确率还行。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.
• 07/08 Market Outlook: Could see some weakness the next week.
• 07/12 Market Outlook: Lower SPX close ahead.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly UP   EEM & Weekly UP XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly UP IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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