07/29/2011 Market Outlook (Lower low then close the week in green)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: LOW WAS IN OR VERY CLOSE, BUT THE REBOUND LIKELY BE ANOTHER SELL OPPORTUNITY

两个结论：

1. Low was in或者非常接近了。当然，这个low应该只是个tradable bottom，不是the low。
2. 熊熊应该至少还有一次sell bounce的机会。

为什么说low was in或者非常接近了？

• 下面的back test是说，VIX weekly rose 40%+，下周有76%的机会绿，当然也有76%的机会lower low first。

 

• 周五的Trading Signals提到，Cobra Impulse System要求cover了，下面的图是历次该洗桶要求cover的地方。可以看到，虽然不是绝对的low，但是也是close enough，对吧？

 

• NYMO oversold.

 

• QQQ空心红棒棒。

 

为什么说熊熊应该至少还有一次sell bounce的机会？

还是惯性定律，SPY连跌5天，表示下跌的动能很大，因此很少有第一次反弹就成功的。下面的图是自2000年以来所有SPX连跌5天或者以上的情况，可以看到，周五的low，此后100%还会再来测试一下的，且lower low的机率非常大。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: OFFICIALLY TO ME IS IN DOWNTREND

In wait and see mode, no update.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. First trading day in August weak, Dow down 9 of last 13, up 1.1% in 2007 and 1.3% in 2009.
2. First 9 trading days of August are historically weak.

The below seasonality char about August is from Bespoke.

 

The below August day by day seasonality chart is from Sentimentrader.

 

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook. Failed!
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead. Failed!

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead. Also 2 more evidences in 07/25 Market Outlook.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term DOWN 3 of 6 OVERSOLD

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful. IWM & Weekly *DOWN   SSEC & Weekly *DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly *DOWN   DAX & Weekly *DOWN   TLT & Weekly *UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly *DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly *DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

jymlo88

c3456

当时惘然

thank you.

lilitulip

hlht

EagleMM

spy2011

ByStander

IMeMyself

thanks

nanosensor

Thanks

cc2265

bucks

surya

oldfox

vancouverea

thx

Fan8an

Diver

Cobra 发表于 2011-7-30 18:19
SHORT-TERM: LOW WAS IN OR VERY CLOSE, BUT THE REBOUND LIKELY BE ANOTHER SELL OPPORTUNITY

两个结论 ...

Billyboy

Newbull