SHORT-TERM: MORE PULLBACK AHEAD
The bottom line:
- 大方向,由于clear overlap,所以基本可以确认这一轮上涨仅仅是个反弹,Aug 9 lows还是要去的。只是目前并没有足够的证据证明反弹已经结束了。
- 短期,应该继续下跌的可能性更大些,SPX targeting 1140ish。我甚至认为这一轮下跌就是要去测试Aug 9 lows了,换句话说,反弹已经结束了。
得出以上结论的主要理由是,反弹变弱,A leg up是1 leg,而C leg up,同样的上涨幅度,却用了2 leg,明显的是没有力气长了,这就很可能意味着下跌的增强,至少至少应该是100% Measured Move吧?这样SPX target就是在1140到1150之间。
下面一幅图应该很清楚:
- 这一轮反弹,overlap太大跟过去从重要底部的反弹,头也不回的样子,没法比。
- 有经验的可以看的,2010年6月的那一轮下跌,3 push down明显的price overlap,尚且是3 leg,我们这次的幅度大于那一次,且目前还没有overlap,是明显的5 wave down,因此很难想象,这一次没有the 3rd leg down。
- 记得我在08/19 Market Outlook里提到的SPX target 1,000吗?如果把这一轮反弹看做是Bear Flag,那么100% Measured Move正好target是1,000附近。
以上是chart pattern得出的结论,多少有点subjective,下面还有两个第三方证据,算是加强上面的结论吧。
为什么继续下跌的可能性大些?因为有77%的机会immediate lower low after a Major Distribution Day。100% Measured Move基本已经没剩多少了,现在连个向上翘起的Bear Flag都没有,所以我觉得达到目标应该不是问题。
为什么反弹可能已经结束了?因为看起来red Non Farm Payroll day似乎总是转折点,market既然是涨到Non Farm Payroll day附近的,那么逻辑上讲,这就应该是个向下的转折点。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH SEPTEMBER
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, day after Labor Day, Dow up 13 of last 16, 1997 up 3.4%, 1998 up 5.0%.
The below September seasonality chart is from Bespoke.
The below day to day seasonality chart for September is from Sentimentrader.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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