找回密码
 注册
搜索
查看: 6226|回复: 11

[讨论] UVXY and VXX and TVIX Explained

[复制链接]
发表于 2012-3-23 03:31 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 superxy 于 2012-3-23 04:35 编辑

看完这三个帖子,应该会明白。

一句话,VIX很低的话,像现在,CONTANGO 很严重;会一直跌; VIX低位徘徊,CONTANGO 严重,阴跌;VIX spike很大的话, UVXY才会有钱赚。现在的情况最好买, XIV 反向VXX。

但是从这个帖子里面说现在的VIX,太低了. "The VIX/VXV ratio had an ALL TIME LOW last Friday, last Friday, March 16, 2012 at 0.71 … that was significantly below previous lows … 0.80 during December 2010 and 0.80 during April 2011 implying significant potential ahead (same as the 0.80 today by the way)"

http://messages.finance.yahoo.co ... 71677&mid=72766

http://messages.finance.yahoo.co ... 73327&mid=73419

http://messages.finance.yahoo.co ... 73327&mid=73419

评分

1

查看全部评分

发表于 2012-3-23 08:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 shoujie 于 2012-3-23 21:39 编辑

(谈谈看法,也许是错的。请批评指正)

因为大家几天前都确认 VIX 在底部并且预期将大幅飙升(看来大家认为第5浪成形??),以至于需求大幅增加。可是事实上又暂停了发行造成溢价。在巨大的差价诱使下,空头进行套息交易致使崩溃。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 08:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
溢差已经减少到2元逼使空头平仓。下面将发生什么呢?
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 09:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
TVIX 直接到位了。如果没有理解错,开在8元后立刻弹回8.5是套息平仓行为。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 09:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
Shouji, should i buy XIV or TVIX or UVXY? lost a lot as UVXY and has closed the deal.. maybe i will get it back?
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 09:55 AM | 显示全部楼层
tigerwang9999 发表于 2012-3-23 09:34
Shouji, should i buy XIV or TVIX or UVXY? lost a lot as UVXY and has closed the deal.. maybe i will  ...

I would suggest not touching it at this moment and wait, if you don't understand
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 10:23 AM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks, shouji, better not touch it, good idea. this shit keep going down every day
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 12:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 新低手 于 2012-3-23 13:14 编辑

A Warning to Investors: Don’t Get TVIX’ed! Says Macke

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/b ... acke-162642044.html

Regardless of whether it made it to the front page of your business section, the biggest news story by far over the last two trading days has been the collapse of the VelocityShares 2x Daily VIX Short Term Exchange Traded Note (TVIX), invariably referred to as the T-Vix ("Tea-Vicks").

The Exchange Traded Note, or ETN, was issued by Credit Suisse (CS) and designed as a vehicle for trading the volatility of the S&P 500 (^VIX) on a levered basis. In theory, if the VIX rose 10% in a day the TVIX would gain twice that amount.

Over the last two days the TVIX lost over 40% of its value. The implosion of the TVIX casts a light on the murky underbelly of the ETF and ETN industry.

Lee Munson and Jon Najarian, among other Breakout guests, have previous discussed concerns over ETFs and ETNs.

Najarian, the co-founder of OptionsMonster.com gave me his thoughts on how levered products work in general and the the TVIX collapse in particular via email this morning:



"ETFs and ETNs are fairly vanilla products, they do what they're supposed to do, track performance of an index, future etc.

All that changes with these levered ETFs & ETNs. With those the price resets every single day. As a result, if you hold during a 30 percent market move that unfolds over 3 to 6 months, the levered ETF or ETN will NOT track that change.

It's that daily reset that makes these levered products not suitable for long-term investing. They are great for short-term hedging, or for adding alpha to your day trading, but not for long-term holding!







Credit Suisse ceased creation of the notes on February 21st. [In effect ceasing to be a market maker of the TVIX, allowing them to disconnect from any hypothetical underlying value]. Both the creation issue and the daily reset are to blame for the TVIX. The crazy pricing and trading of that ETN since Credit Suisse stopped creating the TVIX caused them to hold a value significantly higher than was warranted until the past two sessions when the ETN fell to earth."

Credit Suisse bears much of the blame for what happened to the TVIX, but investors had ample warning. The firms itself laid out many of the risks on page one of the TVIX prospectus, noting that the ETN:

"Should be purchased only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of investing in volatility indices and of seeking inverse or leveraged investment results, as applicable"

"May not be suitable for investors who plan to hold them for longer than one day"

"In almost any potential scenario the Closing Indicative of your ETNs is likely to be close to zero after 20 years."

Investors ignoring the warnings of the TVIX issuer itself could have found prescient insights from Adam Warner, FT Alphaville.com or any number of other sources.

The TVIX disaster is appalling and an embarrassment to all of Wall Street, but it was avoidable for investors. If you didn't avoid this nightmare you need to learn from it anyway.

Too many people are rushing into these poorly designed instruments and getting hurt. The burden is on regulators to make these problems go away but it's also on individuals to understand what they're buying and selling.

There is no free lunch on Wall Street or anywhere else. Don't trust anything you're being told or sold with your own money. Don't wait for the SEC to come in and do your homework; protect yourself by doing the research before you get TVIX'ed.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-23 03:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
shoujie 发表于 2012-3-23 10:55
I would suggest not touching it at this moment and wait, if you don't understand

同意,到今天为止,亏了50%了,然后我才明白这个UVXY是怎么玩的,现在已经太晚了。。。

点评

安慰一下。注意下周。  发表于 2012-3-23 09:54 PM
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 03:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 shoujie 于 2012-3-23 15:55 编辑

(有人接飞刀....别学)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... provide-opportunity

(他 long VXX.)
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-23 03:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
Highlight:

"Regardless if you trade this one or not, both VXX and TVIX should be good to watch next week."
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2012-3-24 09:06 AM | 显示全部楼层
这东西就是毒药,不能裸吃。如果市场坐怀不乱时,千万不能碰。

TVIX,VXX 下跌幅度比例基本一致 (2:1 ETN)TVIX暴跌前的价位不合理。

UVXY 从38---〉15 也是合理的。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

手机版|小黑屋|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2024-5-6 06:33 PM , Processed in 0.073949 second(s), 15 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

© 2001-2024 Discuz! Team.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表