Using 缠论 reading current market

austinjoe

I'm a 缠论 student. Here is what my reading of the current market:

Let's look monthly chart first: after super bull run from 08/1982 to 03/2000, SPX rise from 98 to 1552, then it goes to consolidation. The 中枢 on monthly chart is [1061,1163].
2 following rises, 8-9 and 10-11, that tried to escape monthly [1061,1163] 中枢 are both failed due to 盘整背驰 compare to 4-5 SPX 460 12/1994 to 1552 03/2000.
The current rise from 10/2011 on monthly chart put us in the 背驰段, no matter bench mark 4-6, or 8-9, or 10-11.

Diffusion

austinjoe

Somehow I can not add more pic into my post -- so I have to use another post entry. Sorry I'm not good at posting pic here and it's kind of messy. I was able to attach 3 more pics in the bellow post#4.

Market is still working on itself, hence we could not simply say that the high of 09/2012 SPX 1474 is the end of current bull run from 10/2011. Now its time to look into low level -- weekly chart, Week.png on #4:
The SPX 1266 on 06/2012 is 3rd buy point on 1st weekly [1050,1150] 中枢, however the rise from 06/2012 is much weaker than SPX 1010 ( 07/210) to 1344 (02/2011) or the closest one 1074 (10/2011) to 1422 (04/2012). This put us in 背驰段 on weekly chart.

On Daily chart -- Day.png post#4 bellow, from 10/2011 to 04/2012 is 2 中枢 30F 上涨趋势. 04/2012 to 06/2012 is 1 中枢 30F 盘整. 06/2012 to 09/2012 is 2 中枢 30F 上涨趋势. Again, the strength from 06/2012 is much weaker than 1074 (10/2011) to 1422 (04/2012), this put us in 背驰段 on daily chart as well.

Look detail of 06/04/2012 上涨趋势 -- Day2.png on post#4: it has 2 中枢 -- 1st is [1308, 1336], the 2nd is [1397, 1416], the 09/26/2012 SPX 1430 is 3rd buy point on 2nd 中枢. But the rising from 09/26 could not compare to 09/04/2012 SPX 1396 to 09/14/2012 SPX 1474, both are 1 中枢 5F走势. The previous up before 2nd 30F 中枢 [1397, 1416], 07/24/2012 SPX 1329 to 08/21/2012 1426 is 2 中枢 5F上涨趋势. We can see the rising strength is slowly vaporized. Based on 缠论, 06/04/2012 to 10/05/2012 is 标准趋势背驰 on 30F. We should see another 30F 走势 that head south. Most importantly, the down from 10/05/2012 SPX 1471 is only 1F 下跌趋势, but it already break the 9/26 low from ES point of view. 缠论 tells us that after this 1F 走势 grow to 5F, it must hit 1426.68. The market is going to bounce up for sure, but it will down to 1426 if it did get get there on this 1F down run first.

缠论 does not predict market. The 30F 标准趋势背驰 from 06/04/2012 -- 10/05/2012 tells us this 上涨趋势 is done and SPX will touch 1426 for sure. It could follow by either a 30F盘整 or 30F下跌趋势, market will grow by itself. We could only watch it patiently and act accordingly. Some SPX points to watch 1439, 1430, 1426, 1416, 1396.

If you're bear, then SPX drop bellow 1396 and could not bounce back will generate 3rd sell point on 30F中枢. This would be V reversal and the chance is small. More likely 30F中枢 [1397, 1416] will grow up 1 level. Market finish topping process here.

If you're bull, you want to see SPX touch 1426 but not 1416, and bounce up and never head south again. But the down strength from 10/05/2012 comparing to 9/14 -- 9/26 does not support this view.

austinjoe

Let me try to add 3 more chart.

silicon_beaver

MFTHT

Hohoho.

zmkh

老大的缠论很玄妙啊，支持一下
另外弱弱地问：是不是近期会在1400-1415之间纠缠几天？

bububaba

dsp

Need time to understand your post. Thanks.

chickencoop

Great post! Please come to our Frogie Board often to share your insights to us fellow frogs....

austinjoe

10/11/2012 morning update, ES made 1421 low in the after hour which break 9/26 low. The 1F 下跌趋势 from 10/08 is ended. The overnight ES bounce back to 1437 -- last 1F中枢 zone. the minimum bounce back target has reached. Let's see if this bounce could grow to 2 中枢 1F 上涨趋势, or it ends here as 1 中枢 1F 盘整走势. The key point to watch is ES 1429 or SPX 1435, break down the chance for 2 中枢 1F 上涨趋势 will be gone.

bucks

i love this kind of post as CHAN'S concepts are solidly trickling into my trading philosophy

ethanlinear

还是有些detail看不懂。比如30F中枢怎么画的？啥时候给扫扫盲？

hunting

老大深藏不露啊，，顶一下，，

jlht

austinjoe

09/11/2012, bounce is weak as it's only 1 中枢 1F 盘整走势. New 5F 中枢 is 1442.23,1443.90 at above, the 1F bounce up 中枢 is 1431.55, 1434.28 at bellow. SPX is trying to leave 5F 中枢, the SPX close today 1432.84 fall into 1F 中枢.

SPX break down 1431.55 and could not bounce back to touch it is the strongest bear trend, while SPX jump through 1443.90 and never dip back to fall under it is the strongest bull path. All others is 5F 中枢震荡 around [1442.23,1443.90].

austinjoe

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-10-11 10:53 AM
还是有些detail看不懂。比如30F中枢怎么画的？啥时候给扫扫盲？

You may have to read 缠论 -- http://blog.sina.com.cn/chzhshch to get a better understanding.

30F中枢 is made by 3 5F走势 that overlap. Use 12345, each is 5F走势 and odd is up and even is down.234 made 30F中枢 if 2 and 4 overlap.

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-11 10:17 PM
You may have to read 缠论 -- http://blog.sina.com.cn/chzhshch to get a better understanding.

3 ...

谢老大指点。5F是什么意思？5分钟吗？谢谢

austinjoe

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-10-12 11:25 AM
谢老大指点。5F是什么意思？5分钟吗？谢谢

No. It's 缠论的级别 from level 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10... It's not 1 Min, 5 Min, 30 Min time scale that we used on chart.

"从1分钟一直到年，对应着8个级别，其实，这些级别的名字是可以随意取的，只是这样比较符合习惯。否则说级别1、2的，容易搞不清楚" this is from 缠的 words in  -- 教你炒股票102：再说走势必完美.

Another words: "一般来说，1、5、30分钟三个级别的分解，就足以应付所有的走势。当然，对于大点的资金，可以考虑加上日级别的".

On US market, from 10/2011 low, SPX only have made 3 30F 走势. Now it's the start of 4th one, which is down run.

  

Diffusion