Using 缠论 reading current market

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-16 12:53 PM
10/16/2012 noon. Market is strong today as this rise has shown more strength than last rise from 143 ...

顶老大

austinjoe

12/16/2012. Bull showed strength today break up [1442, 1444]  5F 中枢. It's 7 1F线段 rising from 10/12 1425, no 1F 中枢 formed yet.  1st 线段 8 point, 3rd 线段 11 point, 5th 线段 20 point. Be cautious to this kind of acceleration to avoid possible bull trap as we could not roll out M+A -- 3 tops chance on bear side. Next dip if above 1444 is 3rd buy point of  5F 中枢.

st-watcher

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-14 11:36 PM
No, it's not auto draw by sw. Hand draw by myself. These are 5F走势 coming from 1Min chart 1F线段  ...

oh, thanks

austinjoe

Any one knows how to get SPX index chart in 10Min for at least 10 days? 15 or 20 days would be better. It sounds that finviz.com only allow 1day 10 min chart on SPX500 index. But ES could get hourly chart -- with 15min delay.

鑫森淼焱垚

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-17 09:23 AM
Any one knows how to get SPX index chart in 10Min for at least 10 days? 15 or 20 days would be bette ...

try freestockcharts.com

austinjoe

10/17/2012. Bull continue show strength, today is 7th 1F线段. No 1F 中枢 yet. 7 is weaker than 5, be careful on V reversal as this rise still could not compete with 10/05 down run.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-17 03:24 PM
10/17/2012. Bull continue show strength, today is 7th 1F线段. No 1F 中枢 yet. 7 is weaker than 5, be ...

老大也担心V反转？我是怕这个，虽然现在信号上一片牛气，所以了解了一部分多仓

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-17 09:23 AM
Any one knows how to get SPX index chart in 10Min for at least 10 days? 15 or 20 days would be bette ...

freestockcharts.com

or Njinjatrader by streaming data from your broker

austinjoe

bucks 发表于 2012-10-17 02:28 PM
老大也担心V反转？我是怕这个，虽然现在信号上一片牛气，所以了解了一部分多仓

The rise of 10/12 low 1425 is 7段 -- 1st 线段 8 point, 3rd 线段 11 point, 5th 线段 20 point, 7th is 10 points but not finish yet. Be cautious to this kind of acceleration as it's very possible a bull trap.

If the bull want to claim victory, it has to be stronger than the rising from 9/04 SPX low 1396.5 to 9/14 high 1474.5 on 30F中枢, and first of all, it has to show strength compete 10/05 down run 1471 -- 1430 on 5F中枢. I'll try to post some pics after I get home tonight.

austinjoe

bucks 发表于 2012-10-17 02:30 PM
freestockcharts.com

or Njinjatrader by streaming data from your broker

Thanks for the tips. Unfortunately, my work place blocked "http://www.freestockcharts.com/".

I just want to find an easy web pic that could be used here. My TD has ThinkOoSwim, but it's on my home machine as I could not load it on my work PC :--o)

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-17 03:35 PM
The rise of 10/12 low 1425 is 7段 -- 1st 线段 8 point, 3rd 线段 11 point, 5th 线段 20 point, 7th ...

顶顶，抢沙发。

austinjoe

2 pics here -- 1 is daily show 2 recent 30F中枢, and other is 10Min to show the 1F走势 numbers / 5F走势 red line.

ES turned down before opening, watch SPX 1457 and 1451 today to see if they could provide bull enough support. For bear to score, it need to break down 1451 decisively, then it has to break 1444 as this could be a potential 3rd buy point on 5F中枢 if bull could turn north above 1444.

austinjoe

12/18/2012 noon. SPX finished 7th 1F线段 up and 8th 1F线段 down to 1455.6 this morning, the 9th 1F线段 is done at 1464.02 before GOOG bomb. Now is the 10th 1F线段 heading south. Watch 1455.6 support, if SPX break down and could not bounce up to touch, it's 1F 3rd selling point. But keep in mind that if SPX could bounce up above 1444, that's 5F 3rd buy point that weigh more on 1F.

austinjoe

12/18/2012 close. 10th 1F线段 ends @1452.6, SPX is in its 11th 1F线段 up. There is 1F 中枢 formed with 8/9/10 3 1F线段. Watch how would SPX escape [1455.6, 1462.2] zone.

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-18 03:50 PM
12/18/2012 close. 10th 1F线段 ends @1452.6, SPX is in its 11th 1F线段 up. There is 1F 中枢 formed wi ...

非常感谢及时的update，让偶这只小青蛙收益匪浅

austinjoe

10/19/2012. SPX gap down. Watch 1451.35 and 1455.6 (-- possible 1F 3rd selling point) as resist, 1444 as support -- potential 5F 3rd buy point.

austinjoe

10/12/2012 Noon. The  V reversal  -- bull trap that I warned in post#46 happened. Bear showed strength break down 5F中枢 [1442,144]. Let's see if SPX could find support 1430, 1425 bellow. Watch its next bounce up strength, if it could break up 1442, it's 5F 3rd selling point.

Next key point for bull & bear to fight is 1430. If SPX break down 1430 and could not bounce back, it's 30F 3rd selling point.

鑫森淼焱垚

感谢lz的更新. 本人接触过一些缠论, 但学的不是很明白.

对于你57楼的分析提到一个5F中枢[1442,1444?],是否为10/9日 11:45am EST to 10/11日的 10:45 EST?

另外, 你的30F中枢是否由10分钟图上的8-17段构成, 而中枢区间为[11,14], 因为你提到"If SPX break down 1430 and could not bounce back, it's 30F 3rd selling point." 所以如果破1430反抽无法触及14低点, 构成30F三卖?

上面两个问题请lz指教!

austinjoe

10/20/2012 close. SPX down run from  yesterday high 1464, finish 5 1F线段, current is 6th 1F线段 up -- wait next Monday to make the call of its finish, 4 and 6 overlap 1436 which is new 1F中枢.

Point to watch next week 1442 resist, 1430, 1425 support. Bear has edge over bull now.

austinjoe

Note Last Friday low 1425 is the key to decide whether the SPX 5F 级别 down run from 10/05/2012 completed or not now.  If 1425 is broken quickly, then we're still on the same 1st 5F 级别l down run from 10/05/2012 SPX high 1471, which target 1416.

After 标准趋势背驰 on 2 30F中枢 from 06/04/2012 low to 10/05/2012 high, 缠论 tells there are 2 things for sure:
1> Must have at least 3 5F走势 down / up / down -- I thought we had 1st 5F走势 done,  hence I draw a red line between point 15--18  on post#52 10Min chart. But this red line could be still undergoing if SPX break 1425 next Monday.

2> It must hit 1426 -- the previous 30F中枢 max high at minimum, which is met on 10/12/2012 SPX low 1425.

Pay special attention to 1430 as it is very important here due to both a 5F and a 30F 中枢 low edge.