Using 缠论 reading current market

austinjoe

My 1F线段的起始和结束 is from 1 min SPX chart from bi ==> 1F线段 ==> 1F走势 ==>5F走势 ==> 30F走势 ...

You could use 海边玩人的MACD cross over, as long as you stay with same rule. 缠论  allow you use any F0 as base to start build 中枢 / 走势. If you look closely on my 10 min chart, most of the 1F走势 has a MACD cross, but not all of them because they're build from 1 Min chart Bi / 线段.

10/23 and 10/24 there are more than 9 1F线段 that overlap -- which formed a 5F中枢, 10/25 and 10/26 SPX are swing around this 5F中枢 by 3 1F走势, if SPX keep swing it for another 3 1F走势, then this 5F中枢 will grow up 1 level, become 30F中枢.

Thank you very much for point out my mistake -- it's not Day5F中枢 yet, It's 1 level high than 5F, which should be 30F中枢.

ethanlinear

多谢update

ethanlinear

austinjoe

Look from big picture, there is a Day中枢 [1267, 1422] formed by previous 3 30F级别走势. SPX has been trapped into it.  2 closest 30F中枢 [1398, 1416] -- trap SPX as well, [1430,1471] -- this could provide SPX up momentum, but it could not compete with Day中枢 [1267, 1422] and 30F中枢 [1398, 1416].

On SPX 10min chart, it's on 1F走势 up run before the end of last Friday Oct 26th. Watch 1416, 1422, 1425, 1430 as resist. They could be bear entry point on 1F级别.

heheboy

Watch 1416, 1422, 1425, 1430 as resist. They could be bear entry point on 1F级别.


it seems...like we gotta watch every single point....

hellofriend

austinjoe

10/31/2012 Noon. Bull is too weak today, it could not use morning gap up to break 1422. Like what I said in another post last night, it failed again challenging 1422 -- http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=190959&pid=1928517&fromuid=2718

SPX is 1407 now -- only 4 points above the low of this 5F级别 down run. If break down, this 5F级别 down run will continue. Bear target is 1396 today. Next resist to watch for SPX bounce up is 1411.

ethanlinear

谢老大及时更新

st-watcher

Austinjoe:



Question about your 级别 setting: your is the same as Chan's (i.e; 30F =>D), but Chan use that for Chinese market that open for only 4 hrs. Don't you think we should use 1H => D for SPX since it open for 6.5 hrs?

austinjoe

10/31/2012 Close. Bear could not claim victory today as Bull was able to defend 1403 ok. SPX finished 6 1F线段, the 7th 1F线段 up is not done at close. The 5F中枢 grow 1 level up to 30F中枢 which gives bull some hope to fight back. Resist 1420 and support 1411, 1403 tomorrow.

austinjoe

st-watcher 发表于 2012-10-31 01:20 PM
Austinjoe:

You're right. We could call anything as xx 级别. However, 级别 has nothing to do with time scale, here is  缠师 words in lesson#84 --  本ID理论一些必须注意的问题 http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_486e105c01000cx4.html

"另外，必须再给一种错误的想法敲打一下。级别，本质上与时间无关，级别也不是什么时间结构。级别，只是按照本ID的规则，自生长出来的一种分类方法。而所谓的时间结构，本质上和电脑软件上的K线时间周期选择一样。一个最低级别不到的走势类型，可以生长100年不长成更高级别的，级别与时间，本质上没有太大的关系。级别的关键，就是本ID设计的那套规则。级别，本质上不对任何时间结构有任何绝对的承诺，为什么？因为这里没有任何的绝对的理论推导可以保证这一点，级别被破坏了，就是因为被破坏了，只此而已，并不是因为有什么时间的因素、结构就被破坏了。"

Here is another quote from 缠师 words in lesson#33 走势的多义性  -- http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_486e105c010008x4.html

that could help you understand 级别. In fact, we could simply call 级别 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, .. I just used the way that 缠师 did in her lessons.

"另外一种多义性，是因为模本的简略造成的。不同级别的图，其实就是对真实走势不同精度的一种模本，例如，一个年线图当然没有1个分笔图的精确度高，很多重要的细节都不可能在大级别的图里看到。而所谓走势的级别，从最严格的意义上说，可以从每笔成交构成的最低级别图形不断按照中枢延伸、扩展等的定义精确地确认出来，这是最精确的，不涉及什么5分钟、30分钟、日线等。但这样会相当累，也没这个必要。用1分钟、5分钟、30分钟、日线、周线、月线、季线、年线等的级别安排，只是一个简略的方式，最主要是现在可以查到的走势图都是这样安排的，当然，有些系统可以按不同的分钟数显示图形，例如，弄一个7分钟的走势图，这都完全可以。这样，你完全可以按照某个等比数列来弄一个级别序列。不过，可以是可以，但没必要。因为，图的精确并没有太大的实质意义，真实的走势并不需要如此精确的观察。当然，一些简单的变动也是可以接受的，例如去掉30分钟，换成15分钟和60分钟，形成1分钟、5分钟、15分钟、60分钟、日线、周线、月线、季线、年线的级别安排，这也是可以的。"

ethanlinear

ethanlinear

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-31 03:10 PM
10/31/2012 Close. Bear could not claim victory today as Bull was able to defend 1403 ok. SPX finishe ...

austinjoe

11/01/2012, Bull break 1422 today and not dip back which give its edge over bear now. Watch 1430 as next resist. The rise from yesterday low SPX 1406 is 2 中枢 1F up trend now, watch a potential bull trap in 1430-1432 area.

ethanlinear

austinjoe

11/02/2012 Noon, SPX gap up to make the 2 中枢 1F up trend 背驰 -- it's not a 标准趋势背驰 on 1F but rather 盘整背驰 as 2nd 1F 中枢  has not being ended by a 3rd buy/sell point. Considering the 5F or 30F 中枢 formed last week, the chance of this 5F up 走势 from Oct 26 low 1403 is ended. SPX break down 1422 now, any bounce up that fails @1424 will be a 1F 3rd sell point.

ethanlinear

austinjoe

11/02/2012 close. Today is a copy of Oct 5th, good NFP number leads to sell on news. In deed 1430-1432 area is a bull trap.
Resist to watch next Monday, 1422, 1432. Bull will have trouble if could not take them back.

ethanlinear

hellofriend