Using 缠论 reading current market

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-4 12:25 AM

本帖最后由 milan1126 于 2012-11-4 12:28 AM 编辑

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-2 03:14 PM
11/02/2012 close. Today is a copy of Oct 5th, good NFP number leads to sell on news. In deed 1430-14 ...

今晚又看了一遍SPY各时间段的图，觉得目前形势虽然对熊熊非常有利，但牛牛一息尚存，并不是毫无机会，想与老大探讨探讨：
1.周与日级别在下完全同意老大在本帖首页的看法
2.小时级别：
周五虽然再次高开低走，但该5分钟上涨走势还是进入了之前的小时级别中枢（142.95,146.52），给牛牛的棺材板上钉钉的小时级别三卖仍未出现。
标普小时1.png

再把time frame放大一点，根据走势多义性，仍可以将自8月21日的高点开始至今的走势划分为8段小时级别的中枢震荡，中枢为（142.95，143.09）。如此一来，该中枢即将升级为日线级别，虽说目前看来向下出三卖的机会相当大，但无法排除向上出三买延续日级别上涨走势的可能性。
标普小时.png

3.周五的跌仍然是1分钟级别，5分钟级别是重新被拉回到（140.74，141.58）的5分级别中枢内，如果下周大选出现利好开始暴力拉升，就是牛牛活命的机会。国际市场上来看，港股、A股、欧元图都不差，不像是美股日线大级别崩盘的前夕。
5分钟图：
标普5分2.png

1分钟图：

综上所述，在下对这个目前图上显示的很可能出现的日线级别崩盘仍心存疑虑，望赐教~

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-4 08:39 AM

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-3 11:25 PM
今晚又看了一遍SPY各时间段的图，觉得目前形势虽然对熊熊非常有利，但牛牛一息尚存，并不是毫无机会，想 ...

Please do not use "望赐教" as we both are 缠论 students and this club provides us a platform to learn 缠论 and share our thoughts.

You're right on "给牛牛的棺材板上钉钉的小时级别三卖-- on 中枢（142.95,146.52）仍未出现". Hence bear could not claim victory yet. Bull still have chance to fight back.

Agree with you on "周五的跌仍然是1分钟级别", so 1406 is an important point for bull to defend first. But I'll watch 1403 closely next week, if break down, then spx 1st target is 1396, next is 1360 area.

SPX 1422 -- 1424 will be bear's 1st defend line IMO.

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-4 05:17 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-4 08:39 AM
Please do not use "望赐教" as we both are 缠论 students and this club provides us a platform to le ...

OK，大家互相切磋，互相进步~我目前还在努力将缠论更好地应用到day trade中，缠论理论体系非常精深，但还是说着容易做起来难呀~

海边玩人 · 发表于 2012-11-4 06:27 PM

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-4 12:25 AM
今晚又看了一遍SPY各时间段的图，觉得目前形势虽然对熊熊非常有利，但牛牛一息尚存，并不是毫无机会，想 ...

要是这么画，小时的三卖就出现了，

：

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-4 06:41 PM

海边玩人发表于 2012-11-4 06:27 PM
要是这么画，小时的三卖就出现了，：

海玩老大的线段画法在下不大懂，这就是所谓的千人千缠吧~
我还是按缠师对笔和线段的定义来，形成一套固定的标准吧，我上面发的那帖子也是觉得目前大级别更有可能是在做顶的，呵呵~

海边玩人 · 发表于 2012-11-4 06:44 PM

我的笔画法也简单的：MACD过0轴，为一笔。

海边玩人 · 发表于 2012-11-4 06:47 PM

看一看美元指数，可以作个参考。一般美元涨，股市跌。
现在美元指数开始上涨了：
http://www.fx678.com/chart/index.aspx

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-4 09:26 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-4 08:39 AM
Please do not use "望赐教" as we both are 缠论 students and this club provides us a platform to le ...

agree that 1403 is a critical level to watch. The best hope bulls could pray is a violent reversal to reclaim the 1434.

The election result is a gigantic uncertainty for either side. So I don't anticipate big movements tomorrow, and have not put bulls in death sentence yet.

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-5 04:12 PM

11/05/2012, SPX finished 3 1F线段, the 4th one up is not done till close, a new 1F 中枢 [1409.92, 1415.51] fromed. Watch how SPX escape this 1F 中枢 [1409.92, 1415.51].

gucci · 发表于 2012-11-6 10:38 AM

本帖最后由 gucci 于 2012-11-6 10:39 AM 编辑

以目前的走势来看, 向上的线段还没有结束, 1434.27有可能是会破了.
JM2C

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-6 04:32 PM

11/06/2012, SPX finished 4th 1F线段 from yesterday, dipped to 1420.22 which is a 3rd buy point on the 1F 中枢 [1409.92, 1415.51] formed yesterday. SPX finished 4 new 1F线段, a new 1F 中枢 [1409.92, 1415.51] fromed. The 5th 1F线段 down run is not completed yet. Watch how would SPX escape the new 1F 中枢 [1429.31.92, 1432.10] formed today.

heheboy · 发表于 2012-11-6 08:04 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-6 04:32 PM
11/06/2012, SPX finished 4th 1F线段 from yesterday, dipped to 1420.22 which is a 3rd buy point on t ...

so market will go down or up? 1 sentence....

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-6 11:14 PM

heheboy 发表于 2012-11-6 07:04 PM
so market will go down or up? 1 sentence....

Since you know little to nothing about CHAN theory, let me re-quote what I posted on -- 发表于 2012-10-19 03:41 PM -- post#60

"After 标准趋势背驰 on 2 30F中枢 from 06/04/2012 low to 10/05/2012 high, 缠论 tells there are 2 things for sure:
1> Must have at least 3 5F走势 down / up / down -- I thought we had 1st 5F走势 done, hence I draw a red line between point 15--18 on post#52 10Min chart. But this red line could be still undergoing if SPX break 1425 next Monday.

2> It must hit 1426 -- the previous 30F中枢 max high at minimum, which is met on 10/12/2012 SPX low 1425."

We have 1st 5F走势 down finished on Oct 26 low 1403 and SPX did dive into previous 30F中枢 [1397, 1416]. I took Nov 2 spx 1434 as the end of 2nd 5F走势 up, and we're in the 3rd 5F走势 down -- on condition that spx will not touch 1434 again -- otherwise the 2nd 5F走势 up is not ended on Nov 2.

缠论 does NOT forecast the market direction unless in some specific setup -- such as 趋势背驰 on 2 30F中枢 from 06/04/2012 low to 10/05/2012 high. If you would like to look for market call on daily base, please do not come to this post as you will be disappointed badly.

Note, Before you have finished reading 缠师的108篇教程 -- 《教你炒股票》 Please do not reply my post inside this club.

heheboy · 发表于 2012-11-6 11:45 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-6 11:14 PM
Since you know little to nothing about CHAN theory, let me re-quote what I posted on -- 发表于 201 ...

I am gonna start reading it today, hopefully will gain some insights into CHAN theory, admire your work and patience !!!

hellofriend · 发表于 2012-11-7 02:41 AM

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-7 04:11 PM

11/07/2012 close, bear made a milestone victory by breaking down 1396 the previous 30F中枢 bottom edge. 2 important hints here: the top fracture on Monthly is formed, the down BI on weekly is sealed. Mid term top is confirmed by today's SPX 1388.

SPX finished 4 1F线段, the 5th 1F线段 down run is not completed yet. Watch how would SPX escape the new 1F 中枢 [1396.74, 1402.14] formed today. Today's high spx 1403 before close could be 5F 3rd sell point, to be confirmed tomorrow.

hellofriend · 发表于 2012-11-7 05:18 PM

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-7 11:35 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-7 04:11 PM
11/07/2012 close, bear made a milestone victory by breaking down 1396 the previous 30F中枢 bottom ed ...

The unstoppable drop following in the big gap down this morning penetrated both previous 1 min中枢（143.06,143.26） and 5 min中枢（140.9,141.58)，caused中阴危险. Therefore, although it is impossible to catch the 1min一卖 since it happened before 6 AM, the 1min次级别三卖 can serve as 三卖 to both 1min级别 and 5min级别。I found this happens a lot when using 缠论 in the U.S. market.

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-8 12:20 AM

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-7 10:35 PM
The unstoppable drop following in the big gap down this morning penetrated both previous 1 min中枢 ...

-- Would you please share more details on "Therefore, although it is impossible to catch the 1min一卖 since it happened before 6 AM, the 1min次级别三卖 can serve as 三卖 to both 1min级别 and 5min级别。I found this happens a lot when using 缠论 in the U.S. market." I guess that your "1min次级别三卖" point to 1st bounce up 笔? Could you please post a chart?

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-8 08:59 AM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-8 12:20 AM
-- Would you please share more details on "Therefore, although it is impossible to catch the 1min一 ...

You are absolutely right. 1分钟次级别三卖是昨天开盘后第一个1分钟图上的1笔上涨，这个次级别三卖是根据1分钟图的笔中枢做出的

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Using 缠论 reading current market

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