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发表于 2012-10-30 10:50 PM
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bucks 发表于 2012-10-30 09:08 PM 
借用一下你的图。我指的就是你说的第二种方式。所以市场直接走高的话，与数波的好像就一致了。
所以 ...
You're right. It will form a Day中枢 here -- assume 16 ends Oct 26 low 1403 and start 5F up (17), and then 5F down (18) could not break SPX 1403.
However, the chance is very small here. One reason is what I listed in post#1 that 19-20 on 10Min chart is too strong, so far bull has not show any strength to fight it back -- compare to 15/16 drop, bull fight back 16-17 and 18-19 which formed 1st 5F中枢. After 19-20 powerful bear strike, what bull did? -- 20-21, 22-23, 24-25, bull has tried 3 times and it could not even touch the min of 1st 5F中枢 -- 1425, now is bull's 4th try 26-27, if 27 could not reach 1425, it would be bear's entry point.
There is another reason, 3 orange line on daily chart (30F级别走势) formed a day 中枢 [1267, 1422] -- and SPX has be hold by this one, I think this is key point why 21 / 23/ 25 could not break up 1422, now I would expect the coming 27 will fail bellow 1422 as well.
Following is from 缠师 words in lesson#33 走势的多义性 -- http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_486e105c010008x4.html
"例如，对a+A+b+B+c，a完全可以有另一种释义，就是把a看成是围绕A这个中枢的一个波动，虽然A其实是后出现的，但不影响这种看法的意义。同样c也可以看成是针对B的一个波动，这样整个走势其实就简化为两个中枢与连接两者的一个走势。在最极端的情况下，在a+A+b+B+c的走势系列类型里，a和c并不是必然存在的，而b完全可以是一个跳空缺口，这样，整个走势就可以简化为两个孤零零的中枢。把这种看法推广到所有的走势中，那么任何的走势图，其实就是一些级别大小不同的中枢，把这些看成不同的星球，在当下位置上的星球对当下位置产生向上的力，当下位置下的产生向下的力，而这些所有力的合力构成一个总的力量，而市场当下的力，也就是当下买卖产生的力，买的是向上的力，卖的是向下的力，这也构成一个合力，前一个合力是市场已有走势构成的一个当下的力，后者是当下的交易产生的力，而研究这两种力之间的关系，就构成了市场研究的另一个角度，也就是另一种释义的过程。这是一个复杂的问题，以后会陆续说到，算是高中的课程了"
My understanding is when you lstudy the 走势, better to locate the closest 1F, 5F, 30F, Day, Week..中枢. Normally first 3 -- 1F/5F/30F will be enough, but here we see how the 4th one Day中枢 play an important role in recent SPX 走势. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-10-30 04:04 PM
发表于 2012-10-30 07:12 PM
Please come to share your thoughts on using 缠论 when you have chance :--o)
