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[转贴] WavePlayer's Market View 9/13

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发表于 2008-9-14 10:50 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


Market View Update (9/13/08) 2008-09-13 18:41:39

 

A explanation about high call volume of SPX on Friday: The high call volume of SPX on Friday is suspicious at this critial time. Because most of those calls are bought shortly after market open. ( > 41,000 calls out of 68,000) And it was too far off the money to make any money for a call contract which will expire in a week. So this is most likely insititution investors' action to hedge their heavy short position. After checking SPY, I found the Max Pain of SPY is currently located at 1200. And second to it is 1250. This make a lot of sense. The SPX still has good chance to revisit 1200 next week.

 

Some of supporting points:

 

1. SPY has a raising wedge with declined volume in past three days which is bearish.

 

2. Used to be leading sector Tech sector is continuiously weakening. The lead stocks in tech sector AAPL, RIMM, GOOG are all under or near the critial support level.

 

3. The strongest sector in past 4 weeks RUT can not break above strong resistance around 760.

 

4. Retail and Home builder sectors are also at strong resistance level.

 

5. The last resort of Investment bank GS just closed below ascending long term trend line. This is significant. Because this is the first time for GS weekly closed below long term trend line. If GS ER or outlook is not good ( GS will report ER Tuesday before market open) that will cause another sell off in financials and push market lower.

 

6. VIX still remains high at 25. 66 The fear of market falling is not relieved at all.

 

7. SPX tested 7/15 low twice within a week. ( 9/5 1217 and 9/11 1211 ) This shows the strong market intension to test 1200 and to create a new low.

 

8. SPX can not break and stay above critical support level around 1263-1270 three days in a row and weekly closed below it.

 

9. Too many "Experts" called bottom and many has been expecting a big rally in the market.

 

10. LEH's uncertainty. If LEH has a deal on Monday, market could have a rally for short term, if not, big down wave is expected.

 

Combining all of above, I don't see a rosy picture of the market, just opposite of it. There is no reason to be optimistic at this juncture. Be aware the potential risks. Don't be cautht without guard.

 

发表于 2008-9-14 10:55 AM | 显示全部楼层
帮你编辑一下。
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发表于 2008-9-14 11:02 AM | 显示全部楼层

spy max pain 120?

 

目测也不对吧。

 

而且为什么老是有人说spy 1200 1250什么的。

 

spy就是三位数!

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发表于 2008-9-14 11:05 AM | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2008-9-14 11:10 AM | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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发表于 2008-9-14 11:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
not bad
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发表于 2008-9-14 11:16 AM | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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发表于 2008-9-14 12:14 PM | 显示全部楼层

make sense. but SPY max pain seems wrong.

 

原帖由 well4well 于 2008-9-14 11:50 发表 Market View Update (9/13/08) 2008-09-13 18:41:39   A explanation about high call volume of SPX on Friday: The high call volume of SPX on Friday is suspicious at this critial time. Because most ...

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发表于 2008-9-14 12:27 PM | 显示全部楼层

我后来看了一下,可能是笔误。

 

他应该是在说SPX 的OI,从他说的SPX 1300 volume 暴量来看。

 

不过max pain也应该是1250,

 

原帖由 大P股 于 2008-9-14 13:14 发表 make sense. but SPY max pain seems wrong.  

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发表于 2008-9-14 12:38 PM | 显示全部楼层
Ding! :) Thanks! :)
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发表于 2008-9-14 03:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
根据这个网站提供的数据,目前spy的maxpain是129.
 http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
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发表于 2008-9-14 03:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
waveplayer的计算: 回复funfunfun01的评论:I don't know how you calculate it. and where you got data. let's do the numbers: SPY 120: total 295K 121: 212K 125: 214K 129: 120K 130: 195K which one is Max Pain? 回复drywall的评论:Yes, you are right. I just checked it on the website, it shows the MAX-Pain is 129 but it's wrong. Max-Pain calculation is pretty easy. You just add up all calls and puts for each strick price, the highest total number is Max-Pain-Point. You can check Yahoo/financials it has same number as CBOE. In this case SPY Sep. 120 puts: 274,797 and calls:19,983 total:294,780 SPY 129 puts:52,014 and calls: 68672, total: 120,686 which is way lower than SPY 120. So SPY 120 is Max-Pain For any number on website, you need to verify it before trust. Otherwise, you may be misleaded. In addition, the Max-Pain is a moving target, so it will be more reliable when it is close to expiration day.
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发表于 2008-9-14 03:34 PM | 显示全部楼层

我ft,难怪他算错呢。没听过过这么算max pain的

 

原帖由 Win.Timing 于 2008-9-14 16:30 发表 waveplayer的计算: 回复funfunfun01的评论:I don't know how you calculate it. and where you got data. let's do the numbers: SPY 120: total 295K 121: 212K 125: 214K 129: 120K 130: 195K which o ...

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发表于 2008-9-14 03:44 PM | 显示全部楼层

Thanks ! 祝大家中秋快乐!

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发表于 2008-9-14 05:20 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 1# well4well 的帖子

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发表于 2008-9-14 07:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
Max Pain is 125 according to the below website. Actually 122-126 looks pretty painful. http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl
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发表于 2008-9-14 07:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
Max Pain is 129.50. The Max Pain is more accurate for most major indicies and stocks which have large option volume, relatively low float, and have not experienced a significant and abrupt price move
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发表于 2008-9-14 07:38 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 17# 山上白云泉 的帖子

thanks.
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发表于 2008-9-14 07:43 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 5Hill 于 2008-9-14 20:38 发表 thanks.

 

 

最新资料:

 

AAPl 's Max pain

 

SEP: 157.73

OCT:162.50

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发表于 2008-9-14 07:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
, AAPL的CALL应有点钱赚.

原帖由 山上白云泉 于 2008-9-14 20:43 发表     最新资料:   AAPl 's Max pain   SEP: 157.73 OCT:162.50
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