Forex/Futures ST for Week 5/27-5/31

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-28 07:44 PM

Apparently USD is stronger across the board due to the good data, so less QE in the fall is expected.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-28 07:45 PM

Energies are not bearish yet ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-28 07:46 PM

Metal traders are not giving up yet with the strong USD ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-28 11:36 PM

My goodness, the pullback has already ended in NKD and JPY???

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 12:09 AM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-5-29 01:11 AM 编辑

I think we should add a hedge to the bond holding by using a 10% leveraged profound to remove the rising rate effect due to the expectation of a tapering QE.

Here is the revised portfolio.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 09:24 AM

Let's see whether can make this higher low or not ...

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-29 11:30 AM

原来抄底的ES多单1649出手了，但没敢开空，牛还有机会，我再等等。
今早突然感觉炒股有点儿像看牛熊下棋，炒股的人是旁观者，但是要推算牛熊下面可能的步骤，直到看到一方将军，另一方无解时才把自己的筹码压在将军的一方。

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 12:53 PM

hahaa 发表于 2013-5-29 12:30 PM
原来抄底的ES多单1649出手了，但没敢开空，牛还有机会，我再等等。
今早突然感觉炒股有点儿像看牛熊下棋， ...

I'm not buying the dip yet without JPY staying above 101.3

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-29 01:10 PM

greenback 发表于 2013-5-29 12:53 PM
I'm not buying the dip yet without JPY staying above 101.3

我也没动，等着ES碰到47#图中红线后的反应。这次如果不过红线就掉下来，牛牛完败，开烧。如果过了红线，再回测红线，我觉得是买入的机会。

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 01:15 PM

hahaa 发表于 2013-5-29 02:10 PM
我也没动，等着ES碰到47#图中红线后的反应。这次如果不过红线就掉下来，牛牛完败，开烧。如果过了红线，再 ...

Looks like a FED rally is going on ... let's see how long this gonna last. The next meeting is in two weeks.

Here is the news:

Rosengren (a voting memeber of FOMC) Says Significant Fed Accommodation Still Needed

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... n-still-needed.html

though I think bulls are a bit desperate ... even if I'm still a bull in my retirement account.

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-29 01:54 PM

"though I think bulls are a bit desperate ... even if I'm still a bull in my retirement account."

方向未明的盘整，天平还是倾斜于原有的方向：牛牛。不赚不该赚的钱，我等。

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-29 02:00 PM

前两天在大千置顶看到的“四面墙”：
不赚不该赚的钱；不亏不该亏的钱；该赚的钱一定要赚到，该亏的钱不要心疼。

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 05:48 PM

Okay, first a recap on the stocks and bonds ...

Overall, the market is going as we predicted during the weekend ... so indeed it will consolidate here for a while. If you want to buy and hold, you have to get ready for a bumpy ride. Basically the market needs to REDISCOVER the intrinsic value in stocks that have been artificially pumped high by free money. The responses to the incoming data can be very dramatic EITHER WAY. Maybe staying on the side line is a good idea. Of course, if you want to get involved with stop buy/sell, make sure you use a LARGE MARGIN (i.e. the most conservative S/R levels for your triggering prices.)

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 05:55 PM

We might get into a stage when both bond and stock go the same way. This is bad!

A fast declining bond market is no good to economy. It causes large rate spike and you can see its effect in REIT bond/stocks already. That was why we first exited IYR-based fund (PETDX) last month and reduced MBS-secuirty fund (PONDX) by 50% yesterday. PETDX is down over 2% again today after a ~2% decline yesterday. PONDX is down .24% again today after down 0.16% in each of the last two days. This is pretty big for a well-hedged bond fund.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 05:56 PM

See you later on currency majors and others!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-29 05:59 PM

Okay maybe my comments on bond is too pessimistic ... Note that FED has not done anything to taper bond purchase yet. They can certainly choose to increase bond purchase if the economy goes south from here.