读书笔记 from Ben Graham

zxnk

1)
From 1966 through 2001, one study found that $1 held continuously in stock would have grown to $40

A compound Rate of Return 11% annually

But if you have got out of stocks right before the five worst days of each year, the $1 will grow into $987

A compound ROR 22%

只要每年能保持赚22%以上，大家40年后都是亿万富翁，关键是保持赚钱，该走别贪

2)

In Oct 1982, JNJ lost 17.5% of its stock value in a week while several people died from Tylenol.
In 1980s, JNJ became one of the great investment

In July 2002, JNJ announced federal investgation, stock lost 16% a day
Another great buy example for value investor

CISCO and Nortel in 2000 and 2001, 谁是最后一个接棒者

3）Should You Put Eggs in one Basket

In 1989 Janpanese companies are buying up everything in USA. Stock market gained 21.2% for the past 10 years. You can only conclude that investing outside of Japan is the dumbest idea.

The result? Over the next decade, you lost roughly two-thirds of your money.


中国的现在跟日本怎么比，反正李嘉诚已经连香港都不呆了。
皮之不存毛将焉附！

vanmark

这简直是GRE逻辑题啊。如果在最好的几天前出去，基本上就白干了.....

zxnk

From 1897 to 1949, there were 10 market cycles

6 < 4 year
4 about 6.5 years
one last 11 years

The % of advance range from 44% to 500%, most between 50% to 100%
The % of subsequent decline range from 24% to 89%, most from 40% to 50%

Nearly all bull markets had well-defined characteristics

1) a historically high price level
2) high P/E
3) low dividend yield against bond yield
4) much speculation on margin
5) many offering of new stock of poor quality

Longest bull market 1949-1961
2nd 1990-2000

zhao

jamesmith

顶顶顶，Ben Graham 的书不能不读 :D

这个第三点没看懂，这么扯到中国去的？

value investor最喜欢的就是熊市，那时候比较容易找到misplaced securities :)

zxnk

日本问题值得中国投资者好好学习
现在老龄化，低生育率都像极了

louieca

zlm

Ben 这个是业界良心
说大实话
前面几章最有读头
我感悟最深的是
聪明的人用不聪明的方法赚钱
不聪明的人用聪明的方法赚钱