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我的一些看法

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发表于 2009-3-21 07:00 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


去年每次政府有任何大的看似有利于股市的动作,马上就有大的负面消息出来。上个星期,政府突然放出two silver bullets:M2M and 1.1T. 是不是又有什么坏消息要出来了?Big Ben' new speech also reminds me that gov may let big bank(s) fall. 是不是前一段的Stress Test有结果了?我的感觉是政府还有后手。但是不是太清楚对市场的影响。如果市场开始观望,那么股市又要震荡了。还有一种感觉,政府还是想把bad asset 从银行的balance sheet上拿下来。政府可能想让private sector to take part of it. but the recent AIG bonus and M2M又让人很奇怪政府的真正企图。总的感决是好象还没到底。even a minor bubble like 2000 tech bubble lasted 34 months.
发表于 2009-3-21 09:13 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 09:47 AM | 显示全部楼层
it is so quick. The new policy is coming:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/To ... o-apf-14707954.html

Now, we need figure out the impact and feasibility of this. I think the key is still whether gov can attract private sector to buy toxic asset. The M2M change may not encourage banks to sell those assets, since they have bigger leeway on their income statement and balance sheet. And Ben's speech on letting banks fall also discourages banks to realize unrealized loss. So the asset prices have to be high enough for banks to sell. On the other hand, if the prices are too high, HF will not take it, even gov gives them low or zero funding cost. Probably, gov thinks the toxic asset prices are already fire sale price; and as long as they can build a market, the price would go up. I have no pricing experice on pricing ABS/CMO/MBS/CMBS. But I will ask my friends in this field to check their opinion. But my instinction tells me given the growing unemployment rate and increasing saving rate, I highly doubt that the toxic asset prices can go higher, since default rates will go higher. I guess to completely get out of this bubble, inflation even hyperinflation is the only way.
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发表于 2009-3-21 10:04 AM | 显示全部楼层
3# MR.Pig


"In addition to unveiling his plan for toxic assets, Geithner is also expected to put forward next week the administration's proposals to overhaul the government's current financial regulatory structure.

President Barack Obama said this week that this plan will include a proposal to give the administration expanded authority to take control of major troubled institutions that are deemed too big to fail because their collapse would pose a risk to the entire financial system."

不知道这最后两段意味着什么?
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 10:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
My understanding is the first paragraph means they will change roles or create new regulatory agencies.

The second paragraph echos Ben's talk. They will let bank to fail but gov will absorb the business and liability. It is similar concept like FDIC to handle falling banks.  In this way, fall of a bank will not create chain reaction. So in this case, it will prevent AIG case as well as Lehman case (two extreme examples). But I am puzzled where the gov get the capital to handle this.
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发表于 2009-3-21 10:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
5# MR.Pig


thanks a lot.

then this is the good news or bad news for market? Financials will be up next week?
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发表于 2009-3-21 10:17 AM | 显示全部楼层
We will see.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 10:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
I think it is bad news for weak banks. But without seeing the whole plan, it is hard to tell whether it is good news for the financial sector. Also it is hard to estimate market expectation. It will take sometime to know, since we need evidence to see private sector's participation. So personally, I think financial, even whole market, will be volatile next week. Short term, I guess up chance is higher. But long term, I am bearish.
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发表于 2009-3-21 10:25 AM | 显示全部楼层
8# MR.Pig


thanks a lot.
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发表于 2009-3-21 10:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
刚开始是负面新闻带动股市下跌,后来变成伯楠克,鲍尔森出来讲话,股市立马跌;后来演变成哦爸妈,新财政部长出来就跌。。。 现在,哦巴马不卖花儿谢的涨,股市涨跌他根本不关心。。。

不管怎么样,股市上下直接和政府对花儿谢的战争与和平有很大关系。。

现在问题出来了,筹码都用光了,到底还有怎么可以让股市下跌? 房市? 房地产开始慢慢恢复。 金融? 表面看不出,隐藏的问题要一段时间才能显示出来。 国债? 除非中国大量抛售引起崩溃性恐慌,目前没有这种迹象,但是只有一种情况会,就是在国际事务上的严重的分歧,南海还是其他,目前不得知。 不可遏制的通货膨胀? 这好像是唯一的因素。 目前石油的居高不下,会带动商业物品价格的攀升。 大量的印制美钞,短期不会看到严重的问题,长期必然对后来的严重通膨造成影响。。。。

还有怎么呢?
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2009-3-21 12:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
我的一点看法, 最近南海和四川出事, 背后一定有黑手,是谁大家心里都清楚。 中国政府一定会想法报复,否了可乐的并购案和温总出来喊话就是信号。
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发表于 2009-3-21 06:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
还不是想划拉点外国investor的钱?股市要跌,理由多了。只要有unexpected things happen。比如说Citi一报ER,哐当又亏一大笔,看Market跌不跌?说不定还有个memo他们没disclose.
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发表于 2009-3-21 08:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
No clarity no confident.  It is bad news.
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发表于 2009-3-21 11:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
5# MR.Pig

Gov. can print money(capital).
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发表于 2009-3-22 02:11 AM | 显示全部楼层
Thank you!!
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