也谈Geithner的新计划

pqu

上午抽时间读了一下，洋洋洒洒的一大堆，看起来很振奋人心，给人一种走过路过不要错过的感觉。本青蛙只有两点疑问。希望HT的各位大老集思广益，探讨一下

1。价格。方案中虽然大篇幅的渲染了计划之宏伟，影响之广阔，并不停的放出几千亿上万亿的数字来吸引人们的眼球。不过对于待售资产的定价却轻描淡写，一语带过。只是提到将会通过拍卖的形式以避免国家以过高的价格收购不良资产。回头看了一下 FASB 157 关于 Fair Market Value Measurement地描述。里面强调，Fair Market Value是以Exist value 为准，而不是Entry value。换句话说，Fair Market Value将是在一个供大于求的市场中，买家需要急于出手时的价格。这基本符合现在securities市场的情况。也就是说，虽然是通过拍卖的形式并以拍卖的最高价格成交。但是这个成交价格将会和FASB 157中提到的Fair Market Value非常接近。这就带来了一个假设：不良资产会不会卖不出去？ 要知道，根据M2M 会计准则，绝大部分的金融机构已经在balance sheet上调整了资产的实际状况（根据 Fair Market Value)并进行了相应的资产减记。在这种情况下，我非常怀疑卖与不卖对balance sheet改进有多大影响，这似乎与Geithner在计划中提到的“帮助改善Balance sheet 以更好的融资并放松信贷市场”预期并不完全一致。以我现在工作的公司为例，公司的Market Securities中有一些Auction Rated Securities (ARS). 去年年尾的时候，拍卖流拍，最后只好hold在手中并依照M2M进行资产减记以体现该资产的市场价格。如果private sector依然认为market value会持续降低，经就会有多少人愿意以一个让银行满意的价格来收购这些不良资产呢？

2。又是一场阴谋。任何危机中，都有赢家和输家。当然我们永远都是输家。按以往经济危机的惯例，当良性资产大幅贬值的时候，也就是那些金融大鳄下手的时候。这里面需要提到的是，目前似乎对良性和不良资产没有一个确切地划分。换句话说，因为金融危机的影响，很多良性资产也会暂时的表现为fair market value低于Face value的情况。如果这些资产，被有预谋的按着不良资产以低价出售，将会暂时的缓解这次危机（因为金融大鳄的目的已经达到了）但却是以所有人的财富为代价。我并不是阴谋论者，不过依然很感兴趣究竟哪些人（或机构)会参与这次计划。或许，这可以为我们提供一些侧面的信息。

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源济

听说炒股赚钱

polopolo

For your point #1, major banks are still playing valuation games, otherwise they are already dead.
For your point #2, somebody will gain from the undervalued assets, if that is the case, it is good for everyone (reflation), then what exactly the problem is? Most money is made from the pricing confusion, be it stock or real estate or commodities. I don't see any problem with that.

My view is that this plan solves the funding problem. Many hedge funds (and in general, big investors who are not wiped out yet)want to buy toxic assets. After all, they still worth something, although how much "something" is a trillion dollar question. The problem is that, they don't have trillion dollars, and funding cost for them is quite high (relative to returns).  Now the govt is providing the funding, so they can go ahead.

The major obstacle IMHO is still the bank may not want to sell. While the funding problem is solved, there is no reason for Warren Buffett or Soros to go out and waste a few billions to subsidize banks. They are willing to pay higher price than before (because of lower funding cost), but not so high that their money is wiped out (remember, they takes first loss along with Treasury).

My prediction is that we will either see very high inflation (not due to this plan, but other actions taken by govt), or a lot of bank takeovers.

coexist

Uncle Ben will continue to print the dollar until it crashes

omaha

So it makes sense for banks to hold out for a while, as long as they have sufficient capital, and if they can get some relief from M2M...

For your point #1, major banks are still playing valuation games, otherwise they are already dead.
For your point #2, somebody will gain from the undervalued assets, if that is the case, it is good f ...
polopolo 发表于 2009-3-23 15:32