求解惑，关于现在的P/E到底是不是太高

lilitulip

看了这篇文章这一段，实在很困惑，求解惑。 谢谢

尤其这里

What tends to be more predictive is the equity risk premium. (Equity risk premium is the additional return above a "risk-free" rate investors expect for putting their money into a riskier asset class.) You can proxy that as the earnings yield (the inverse of P/E) minus the 10-year Treasury yield.

https://www.fidelity.com/learnin ... ion-stocks-recovery

Do you think the market is overpriced given earnings?
Chisholm: I think that the tricky part about calling the market overpriced is defining it by price-to-earnings (PE). If you define it that way, the market's expensive. But it's important to realize how it got that way: on an unprecedented decline in earnings.

There are 2 problems associated with using P/E. First, stocks often get more expensive at earnings troughs, but earnings troughs are often coincident with a market bottom. 2009 offers an example. On P/E, stocks got pretty cheap, at 10x, before the true earnings decline hit. But multiples quickly rebounded to 15x as the earnings decline appeared. But it was the 15x valuation level, not the 10x, that coincided with the market rally. It coincided because that was the point at which earnings rebounded.

Second, earnings multiples overall are not very predictive of future returns on a 1- or 2-year basis. If we examine quartile data on valuation, stocks have the same odds of advancing regardless of which quartile they are in.

What tends to be more predictive is the equity risk premium. (Equity risk premium is the additional return above a "risk-free" rate investors expect for putting their money into a riskier asset class.) You can proxy that as the earnings yield (the inverse of P/E) minus the 10-year Treasury yield.

On that measure you start to see differentiated probabilities—the more expensive equities are relative to bonds, the lower the odds of an equity market advance. The situation we remain in, with stocks in their cheapest quartile relative to bonds, carries the highest odds of continued performance, at 84%.

When valuation measures conflict, I tend to lean on the ones that have been more predictive historically. And those continue to point toward a market advance.

Cobra

好像从底部反弹一开始P/E都很高，所以P/E高好像不是问题啊。

胡同0110

这个历史是重复的，每次都有人跳出来说这次不一样了，不是什么新鲜事。巴菲特指标可能更准确一点。我在发的贴子里提到了，按现在的数值就算GDP反弹２０％，还是处在严重泡沫的位置。

deep

从历史轨迹来看，PE确实处于高位，但考虑到当前利率，偏高的PE也有其合理性。

temujin

Buffett's indicator is flawed as well, it doesn't take into account the ratio of public companies vs private. Over the long term, the ratio of public vs private increases. Buffett's made the comment about 2 decades ago.

胡同0110

temujin 发表于 2020-8-23 09:33 PM
Buffett's indicator is flawed as well, it doesn't take into account the ratio of public companies vs ...

这个有点道理，但就像指数需不需要做通货膨胀调整一样，很多人认为没有必要，因为市场会自动消化。同样的也许指标和５０年前比有失真，但靠近的年代还是很有说服力的。
说实在的，真正失真的是指数，是到调整指数编排的时候了，现在的指数虽然从权重角度有道理，但却忽略了指数的广泛性，就好比参议院和众议院的比较。

td2020

都2030年炒股还看PE？

哪我估计你永远只能买一些大的药股之类的了。

最近20年那个疯涨的股票PE不高？对不起，没有。

snailittle

这一段“Chisholm: One of the best ways to assess what the market is discounting is by analyzing valuation spreads, the difference between the highest- and lowest-valued stocks. During volatile times, investors sell the stocks they think are risky and bid up the valuation of stocks they believe are "safe."
In March, those spreads, which I call dislocations, were within 75% of levels we saw in 2009—the highest level of fear in the market in my database.”。请问哪里能看到这个“valuation spread” indicator.  Thanks

Elephant

tsla的pe很高还拼命涨，intc的pe很低也是牛公司就是不涨。

deep

snailittle 发表于 2020-8-24 12:52 PM
这一段“Chisholm: One of the best ways to assess what the market is discounting is by analyzing valu ...

这个可能得自己算了。
下图是用1/3，有的是用1/4

td2020

Elephant 发表于 2020-8-24 11:48 AM
tsla的pe很高还拼命涨，intc的pe很低也是牛公司就是不涨。

看PE炒股有用的话就好了。

AMZN, TSLA，NVDA, NFLX 谁的PE不高，


FB， GOOGLE 当年股票飞涨的时候谁的PE不高。

说穿了，　除非你是投资拿分红，不然PE不仅0 用处，而且还有害， 因为你会错过那些飞涨的股票。

胡同0110

这个有点意思，怎么定义那些是value stock？

deep

用PE

snailittle

deep 发表于 2020-8-24 01:56 PM
这个可能得自己算了。
下图是用1/3，有的是用1/4

多谢deep 大牛

高级算法

虽然现在 pe太高，但是市场是情绪化的，不能阻止一些更疯狂的人愿意继续买。
只要有人继续买，价钱就可以继续提高，也就是还是有利可图。。。。。一直到开始跌。
PE=30的时候有可能要再涨两年到PE=40才跌。你不买，就错过两年的涨幅。

老灯

PEG是彼得·林奇发明的一个股票估值指标，这个指标更多的应用于成长股的估值。

而PE指标更多的应用于成熟股的估值。