Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger

darth

Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.

The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."

snowball2009

Thanks for sharing

dividend_growth

这位“股神”的历史战绩如何呀？

话说得很吓人，但如果是连喊20-30年崩盘的那种就不必参考了。

至少没有咱们的小番茄喊崩盘有威胁性！

buctusa

ppteam

预测好玩，操作看图。我还不信你一天跌SP500点了。

Lynxx

trueself

wxp

可惜该老兄的正确率仅33%，基本上算不错的反指了。

..........
As indicated by the name of his company and his newsletter, Robert Prechter relies essentially on Elliott wave analysis to forecast stock market behavior.
He has been very negative on stocks for the entire sample period, generally taking a very long-term view.
Based on our judgment, Robert Prechter's accuracy rate is about 33%, which is very poor. However, especially because of his very long forecasting horizon, the sample is much too small for reliable inference.
In fact, Mr. Prechter's reported forecasting horizon is so long that testing multiple independent forecasts within his or any evaluator's lifetime is problematic.

penguin

dividend_growth

可惜该老兄的正确率仅33%，基本上算不错的反指了。

..........
As indicated by the name of his company and his newsletter, Robert Prechter relies essentially on Elliott wave analysis to forecast stock ...
wxp 发表于 2009-8-11 16:29

结论：

一个整天喊崩溃的死空头，无参考价值。

trueself

结论：

一个整天喊崩溃的死空头，无参考价值。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-8-11 19:38

sds

Prechter因为准确地预测了１９８２年的牛市开始，一举成名。以后二十多年不断预测市场崩溃，直到２００７年才预测成功。尽管如此，我个人以为Prechter的公司EWI的市场分析很有价值，他们真正懂Elliott Wave，我看到的另外一家真正懂EW的就是原来胡同的Chuxue，虽然网上看到的搞EW的很多。

透明的心

Chuxue这一段听说也迷路了

houston

13# 透明的心
他在哪里?不来这啦.

sds

Chuxue这一段听说也迷路了
透明的心 发表于 2009-8-11 21:10

我说EWI和Chuxue真正懂EW是指基本理论方面。基本理论我指的是R. N. Elliott的Original理论。我看过不少EW的网站，很多都是基本概念不清，或者是EW的变种。至于预测准不准那就是应用水平了。EW对没有Manipulation的Market最有效。现在的Market有没有Manipulation，问问扒拉客，笨，和题目就知道了。难怪EW都迷路了。FA和TA不也都迷糊了吗？

usami

buctusa 发表于 2009-8-11 13:47

你是不是168的GoldmanSucks股神? 你们头像居然一样的。。

usami

我说EWI和Chuxue真正懂EW是指基本理论方面。基本理论我指的是R. N. Elliott的Original理论。我看过不少EW的网站，很多都是基本概念不清，或者是EW的变种。至于预测准不准那就是应用水平了。EW对没有Manipulation的 ...
sds 发表于 2009-8-11 21:44

问题是有没有manipulation不可能实现知道啊。。

veryfunny

我说EWI和Chuxue真正懂EW是指基本理论方面。基本理论我指的是R. N. Elliott的Original理论。我看过不少EW的网站，很多都是基本概念不清，或者是EW的变种。至于预测准不准那就是应用水平了。EW对没有Manipulation的 ...
sds 发表于 2009-8-11 21:44

最近这段好像凡是三月前做过熊的都做错了，因为三月前做熊做得太舒服了，所以总觉得不应该反过来做，毕竟基本面不应该一下好起来。EWI, Chuxue都属于这类。

sds

最近这段好像凡是三月前做过熊的都做错了，因为三月前做熊做得太舒服了，所以总觉得不应该反过来做，毕竟基本面不应该一下好起来。EWI, Chuxue都属于这类。
veryfunny 发表于 2009-8-12 00:58

所以说不能跟风，别人的分析预测参考而已。盲目跟风是要去澎湖湾的。