05/10/2010 大盘回顾 （Still Expect a 2nd Leg Down）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 11 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too low. 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Bottomed? BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) Feel free to take profit. Down swing is different from up swing where profits could be huge within a day or two but also could be vanished within hours. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, sell short at tomorrow’s open or whatever time you like as long as the sell signal is valid. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN     EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. A little too low below MA(200) though. CANADA DOWN   *Black bar means pullback? BOND UP   *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, Black bar and rejected by resistance so yield could pullback while bond could rebound. EURO DOWN   4.2.1 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Weekly): Testing major support. Also too low below MA(200) now. *Black bar means pullback? ChiOsc is a little bit too low though. YEN *?   *ChiOsc is a little too high. GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL DOWN ENERGY DOWN     FINANCIALS DOWN     REITS *UP   MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

SPX TIME AND TARGET ANALYSIS: THE PULLBACK SWING COULD LAST TO 05/23

 

今天还不说明什么，看明天吧。不过周末报告的wave count显然是错了，因此forget about the target，不过暂时维持：

1. Expect a 2nd leg down at least to test the 05/06 low.
2. Pullback could last to 05/23.

理由还是这次的pullback无论从强度还是幅度看，都明显强于June 2009 and January 2010的pullback，因此从wave角度看应该属于更高level的pullback。前两次pullback都是2 leg down并且持续了17到27 calendar day，因此逻辑上讲，这次怎么都该有2 leg down并且至少也要17到27 calendar day。See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

If interested, take a look at chart 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily) and 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), both look like a cycle top, but since both charts are messed up, so I’m not sure if they mean what they mean.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 05/06 LOW WILL BE BROKEN BUT NO EVIDENCE SAYS THIS IS A START OF A NEW BEAR MARKET

See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，看起来the primary sell signal triggered，这也意味着Non-Stop Setup是sell short RSP, perhaps tomorrow morning at open。这个setup如果能及时套利的话，winning rate有70%，虽然officially，the winning rate is 48% but the gain loss ratio is 2.3，就是说赢一单，可以抵上输两单，因此48%的winning rate is OK啦。

 

 

The setup above has no stop loss，下一个buy signal，自动cover然后long。但不是说因为没有stop loss，所以就可以随便买多少，见下面的back test，the max draw down是8%，所以参见How many shares to buy for each trade?，say，你有$100,000：

• 100,000*2% = 2000
• 2000 / 8% = 25,000
• 25,000 / 42.69 (RSP close price today) = 585，就是说最多你可以short 585股。For fun only哈，后果自负。

 

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNAL BUT GENERALLY SHOULD BE SMALL BAR TOMORROW

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到VIX drop more than 20%，6 out of 6 cases，第二天红。下面图highlight了VIX drop more than 18%的case，7 out of 8第二天红，有兴趣地看看都是些啥日子。

 

 

6.1.1b Extreme CPC Readings Watch，这个忘了说了，CPC > 1.01，明天79%的机会收绿。

 

 

北京哥哥

沙发

brcm

..................大力顶..............................:(13):

Summerrose

yaobooyao

沙发?

Alchemist

ROOKIE2

bandeng

北京哥哥

背喜交加啊。。。我终于抢到老蛇的沙发了。。。。。

helen1

safa

epsom

Thanks a lot

wxp

weigoodone01

surya

Thx!

oda

LadyLucy

t-k

tenteddies

acoust

First page!

fead

thanks!

sandera