07/09/2010 大盘回顾 （May See Pullback But Rebound Not Over Yet）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term   3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Short-term model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/11,07/24-07/28 07/11 / *07/23 07/12, *07/16, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/12

BULLISH BEARISH

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model     *No short on 07/09, the setup was invalidated.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before July expiration, 2008 broke Dow 5 year bull run.
2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 9.

从下面的July seasonality chart可以看到，下周周一到周三都很bullish。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN

 

中期的看法没有改变，还是预期2nd leg down，pullback至少要到10月2日才结束(See 07/02 Market Recap for more details)。 不过，目前由于散户情绪太熊，因此很可能我们目前的短期反弹会走的比较远。

 

下面看看散户的情绪有多熊：

 

AAII Bull Ratio from sentimentrader.

 

 

Rydex Bear Fund Asset Flow from sentimentrader，就是说Rydex trader太多人买bear fund了。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY BUT MOST LIKELY THE REBOUND ISN’T OVER

 

见下图，07/07 Market Recap里讨论的min price and time target，到周五全部达到。

 

 

考虑到：

1. 周五的After Bell Quick Summary里提到的price volume negative divergence，short on Friday close and cover on Monday close（更正一下周五的After Bell Quick Summary里的描述错误，应该是"cover short the next day”，不是"hold until the first profitable close”），almost 100% winning rate。
2. 1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)的Bearish Rising Wedge (or Ending Diagonal Triangle in Elliott Wave term)。
3. 下周一，07/12是个potential turning date (See 07/02 Market Recap for more details)。

 

时间，价格以及pattern全部符合，因此非常大的可能周一就会pullback。

 

如果，indeed周一开始pullback，特别是如果pullback的幅度很大的话，rebound是否就结束了呢？我认为可能性不大。理由是这一轮反弹的momentum很强，大家还记得我05/21 Market Recap里关于a forward accelerating car cannot be reversed backward without reducing the forward speed first的说法吧？当时是针对NYMO no positive divergence，因此expect a new low ahead，现在同样，见下图，RSI no negative divergence，因此expect a new recovery high ahead。

 

 

如果你同意上面关于expect a new recovery high ahead的说法的话，下面的图是estimated price and time target：

1. The mini price target is SPX 1099.97.
2. The time target could be around 07/16, after that the market may pullback to around 07/31.
3. Another possibility is to pullback from 07/12 to 07/16 then rise to around 07/31. (I’ll explain why 07/31 is important later.)

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN		4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565. 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black may mean short-term top is very close.
IWM	DOWN		Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	BUY	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN		4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP	SELL	*Testing support.
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP		4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN		4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN		4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    many thanks

always

impresario100

tortose

Thanks

overdrunk

quickcow

早！  thanks

overdrunk

hutong123

many thanks .................

nanosensor

Ding!

joep

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-7-10 21:23

   

hhli3

Enjoy reading it. Thanks for the hard work.

源济

maldini

windy

Thanks

ranchgirl

great

stockgirl

First page!

vicvic

thanks a lot

cartier

everest001