08/02/2010 大盘回顾 （Watch 2 Overbought Signals）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/6,8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/2,8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/09 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so market bottomed? BEARISH 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so market topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

 

今天的market action回答了07/30 Market Recap的问题：Yes, we did have a new recovery high。不过，今天的short-term session有两个我很看重的overbought signal，因此短期pullback的可能很大，所以暂时maintain the forecast below (will adjust the forecast once I see how the market actually pulls back)。

1. The correction since 04/26 is not over.
2. The rebound since 07/01 could be very close to an end.

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BIT OVERBOUGHT

 

看到标题，肯定有人会说，who cares, overbought can be more overbought。不过，我在07/26 Market Recap里提到过，我看的overbought信号不是普通的信号，应该还记得我07/26用overbought作标题以后发生了什么吧？因此这些信号还是有一定的credit的。当然今天还不足以用overbought做标题，算提醒吧，尤其是明天如果又大涨得话。

 

T2122, my ultimate weapon for watching overbought/oversold.

 

 

T2112, NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40)。这个数值对比2009当然不算什么，但是在2009年以前，这个数值已经是record high了。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar may mean US$ rebound tomorrow.
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	*UP
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

donkeygirl

多谢老大。耶，沙了个发

dreampen

Thanks,

Kami

summer123

oda

thanks.

Bencat

first. read second!

oldfox

can2000

thanks

michaelzhang

nstar

tigerzhang88

thanks a lot!

H@T

darren168

so early

like2swing

thanks.

linksys2006

thanks a lot!.

开小差

thx,ding

navybean

stockgirl

Thank you ! First page

ForeverExplorer

Thank you always